Will East Coast Low Be a Father's Day Weekend Beach Bummer?

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Over the past few days, we have been monitoring the possible development of a weather system off the Southeast coast of the U.S. and the potential impacts that it could have for the coastal areas and beaches for the upcoming Father's Day weekend.

Based on the latest computer model guidance, there is a reason to be more optimistic, especially for Virginia and the Carolinas, by the weekend.

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A dip in the jet stream will allow low pressure to develop off the Southeast coast of the U.S. by Friday night.

With high pressure to the north and low pressure off the coast Friday night and Saturday, there will be at least a short period where an onshore flow will increase the surf a bit and create some dangerous rip currents.

The threat of showers and gusty winds will sag southward during the weekend.

Here is what we can expect for the Atlantic and Gulf beaches this weekend, in deeper detail.

Atlantic Coast Beaches

Forecast: An area of low pressure will likely move off the coast of the Carolinas by late Friday. The low should sag southward, along with an attending cold front.

Impacts: Scattered rain showers, gusty winds, slightly elevated surf, dangerous rip currents and minor coastal flooding at high tide are all possible from from Friday night to Sunday. Cooler than average temperatures are expected.

Areas affected: Mainly coastal Virginia and North Carolina Friday night to early Saturday and coastal South Carolina and Georgia Saturday. By Sunday the area most affected should be farther south (coastal Georgia to northern Florida), and impacts will be lessening.

Gulf Coast Beaches

Impacts: Scattered rain showers and a rip current threat will be present Friday through Sunday.

Areas affected: Coastal Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle.

Coastal Low Setup

The jet stream will be highly amplified across the U.S. through the upcoming weekend. While an upper-level ridge (bulge in the jet stream) builds from the Southwest to the Great Lakes, a low-pressure trough (dip in the jet stream) will slide slowly southeastward later this week toward the Southeast coast and then offshore.

As the ridge builds around this trough, an area of low pressure could close off and it will move very little over the weekend.

There will also be an area of low pressure at the surface. The low should be fairly weak and it should slide southward over the weekend, so impacts farther north should be short-lived.

Counterclockwise winds around the low will create at least slightly elevated surf. There is also a pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north, so winds could be gusty at times.

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The low will produce occasional rain showers.  Dangerous rip currents are also likely.  The onshore flow and moisture will keep high temperatures below average. 

Impacts will be modest along the Gulf Coast as a stationary front will linger. Widely scattered showers and possible rip currents can be expected from coastal Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle.

If You Get Caught In a Rip Current:

• Don't fight the current. It's a natural treadmill that travels an average speed of 1 to 2 feet per second, but has been measured as fast as 8 feet per second (faster than an olympic swimmer).
• Relax and float to conserve energy. Staying calm can save your life. 
• Do NOT try to swim directly into shore. Swim parallel to the shoreline until you escape the current's pull. When free from the pull of the current, swim at an angle away from the current toward shore.
• If you feel that you can't reach shore: relax, face the shore and call or wave for help. Remember: Wave, yell and swim parallel.

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