NOAA Releases Below-Average Hurricane Season Outlook

With June 1 comes six months of hurricane season, cones of uncertainty, spaghetti models, invests, tropical storms and a lot of changing forecasts.

Here's what you should know this hurricane season:

1. Fewer than average hurricanes are expected between now and November.

To keep some of these numbers in perspective, just look back to 2000 when the average used (1971-2000) was 10 named storms and six hurricanes.

That means that this forecast would have been forecasting an above-average season.

Also, keep in mind that it only takes one hurricane to make it feel like an active season to you. Ask anyone in Miami in 1992 or Houston in 1983.

"Below average" does not mean "safe."

2. You will hear a lot about El Niño over the next 6+ months.

Water temperatures are warming in the Pacific, and that will have an impact this hurricane season on anyone from the Southeast to the Caribbean, and even into the Southwest. Here are a few ways:

• There are likely going to be fewer hurricanes in the Caribbean this season due to strong wind shear.
• The Gulf Coast and Southeast Coast can still be hit by hurricanes in super El Niño years, but no year in such conditions has had more than one hurricane landfall in the U.S.
• Despite the forecast for fewer storms in the Atlantic, more storms are expected in the Pacific, and that could lead to more rainfall from Southern California to Arizona and New Mexico.

A rare "super" El Niño is increasingly likely by the heart of hurricane season and is even more likely for the end of hurricane season. This means that the above conditions are likely to be amplified.

(MORE: What Is El Niño?)

3. The next six months will bring a slew of storms with names that we'll all get familiar with. You will have seen most of the names before, but here's a refresher:

Most of these are repeats from the list that was used in 2020, but "Leah" replaces "Laura" from that season due to Laura's devastating impacts in Louisiana.

(MORE: What You Should Know To Get You Through The Next Storm)

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.