Waters continue to steadily warm in the eastern Pacific and a strong El Niño is expected to develop by this autumn, according to the latest update by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC). It is expected to be near the top of the list of strongest El Niños on record.

El Niño's status update

A steady strengthening of El Niño continues in the Pacific; that is, the waters continue to warm.

Waters in a zone of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean near the equator have warmed to 1.2 degrees Celsius (or 2.1 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. The atmosphere has begun to respond to this warming, according to the CPC. Thunderstorm activity is increasing over the central and eastern Pacific and is suppressed over Indonesia.

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You can see this tongue of anomalously warm water in the map below, stretching from the coast of South America to the central Pacific Ocean near the equator.

This El Niño has a 97% chance of persisting through early spring 2027.

El Niño is a periodic warming of water in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that can affect global weather patterns for months.

There have been 27 other El Niños since 1950, with one happening on average every three to four years.

The last one happened from summer 2023 into early spring 2024.

More strengthening ahead

This burgeoning El Niño will likely continue to intensify into a strong event.

"There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950," says NOAA in its update. This is what many meteorologists call a super El Niño, a term used to describe temperatures at least 2 degrees Celsius (or 3.6 F) above average.

These super El Niños are more rare.

There have been only five since 1950, the last occurring 11 years ago from 2015-16. They also occurred in 1997-98, 1991-92, 1982-83 and 1972-73. Super El Niños have also been documented in 1888-89 and 1877-78.

Where could the 2026-2027 El Niño land in the record books?

Some computer forecast models suggest this El Niño could become one of the most intense on record.

Models continue to trend deeper and deeper into the "super" El Niño category.

In their early July update, the ECMWF suggested that water temperatures will top 3 degrees Celsius above average, possibly as early as September before peaking this autumn or early winter.

The strongest El Niño saw water temperatures reach 2.5 degrees above average in the fall and winter 1982-1983. More recently, from November - January 2015-2016, water temperatures reached 2.4 degrees Celsius above average.

Other models top it out either as strong (at least 1.5 degrees above average) or super, but not necessarily record-breaking.

What are the potential impacts?

First, some disclaimers.

El Niño (and its counterpart, La Niña) is only one influence on the global weather pattern. Also, every El Niño is different, much like every hurricane can have its own idiosyncrasies.

But, in general, the stronger the El Niño, the more likely it will impact global weather.

Here are some of those potential impacts.

Hurricane season

A stronger El Niño tends to produce more sinking air and stronger wind shear in parts of the Atlantic Basin, both hostile to hurricanes.

(July Forecast Update: Hurricane season likely to be quieter)

So, in general, most stronger El Niño Atlantic hurricane seasons are quieter than average. That's not always the case, as the 2023 season illustrated.

Meanwhile, eastern and central Pacific hurricane seasons are typically more active during strong El Niños.

(IN DEPTH: Strong El Niño hurricane seasons | Effects on tracks | Caribbean travel impacts)

Winter

In winter, the southern, or subtropical, branch of the jet stream usually is turbocharged in a stronger El Niño.

That means a wetter winter usually is the result across the southern tier of states from parts of California and the Desert Southwest to Florida and the Southeast. This could also mean more snow across these areas if the air is cold enough, as we illustrated in a previous deep dive.

Meanwhile, much of the northern U.S. typically has a milder and drier winter during a stronger El Niño, from the Northwest and northern Rockies to the Northern Plains and Midwest.

(IN DEPTH: What a super El Niño Means for winter in your state)

Global precipitation

El Niño's impacts typically extend around the globe. Those are highlighted on the map below.

For example, parts of Africa, India, Australia, the Philippines, Indonesia, the Caribbean and northern South America trend markedly drier during El Niño.

On the other hand, warm water and lighter trade winds typically set the table for heavier rain in parts of Ecuador and Peru. Parts of eastern Africa, central Asia, Chile, Uruguay and Paraguay are also usually wetter than average during El Niño.

(MORE: What El Niño means for marine life)

Global temperatures

One impact we're highly confident about is a spike in global temperatures during this El Niño. At the risk of oversimplifying, all this extra equatorial Pacific Ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, and all large swaths of drier conditions allow plentiful sunshine to heat the surface.

As the graph below nicely illustrates, the large majority of El Niños have triggered temperature spikes, including the last "non-super" El Niño in 2023.

The previous super El Niño crushed previous global temperature records in 2015 and 2016. Those two years remain among the top 10 warmest years for the planet, all of which have occurred since 2015.

Given last year was the planet's third warmest year, it seems like a slam dunk that new heat records will be set in 2026, possibly again in 2027.

From a climate change angle, this is worrisome.

A December 2025 study found super El Niño events can drive sudden "climate regime shifts" in both temperatures and precipitation, and that this effect could be increasing in a warming world.