Confidence continues to mount against an active Atlantic hurricane season, according to Colorado State University's final 2026 outlook. El Niño's strong winds over parts of the basin continue to reduce activity forecasts.

Confidence grows in a quiet season

The number of tropical storms and hurricanes forecast by Colorado State University did not change from its update in July.

The new forecast is for nine tropical storms and four hurricanes, only one of which will reach Category 3 status.

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In other words, seven more tropical storms are expected through November.

It would be the fewest storms in any Atlantic season since 2014, the fewest hurricanes since 2015 and the fewest Category 3 or stronger hurricanes since 2013, which failed to produce a single major hurricane.

Furthermore, CSU's outlook says the chance of a Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane making landfall along the U.S. coast is very low – 16%. That's compared to the average of 43%.

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The most recent outlook from The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2, issued on July 16, forecast 10 tropical storms, four hurricanes and one hurricane that reaches at least Category 3 strength.

NOAA's most recent update calls for 7-13 tropical storms, 2-6 hurricanes and up to 2 Category 3+ hurricanes. They say there is a 75% chance of a below-average season.

We've had two tropical storms so far and no hurricanes.

It has been the least active season to date since 2009 by a metric called Accumulated Cyclone Energy (or ACE), which not only counts the number of storms, but also considers how long they last and how strong they are.

Last season had 13 tropical storms, five hurricanes and four major hurricanes.

El Niño continues to strengthen

Strong warming in the Pacific is already ongoing, and the atmosphere is being impacted.

The weather pattern's response to El Niño is the single biggest driver of how this hurricane season will go. And the latest predictions suggest that a historic El Niño is ahead.

"We currently anticipate that El Niño will dominate the tropical circulation during the peak of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, driving well above-normal levels of vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean," says Dr. Phil Klotzbach in the latest update.

(Explained: What is wind shear?)

Higher wind shear and sinking, dry air are hostile conditions for hurricanes and tropical storms to develop.

(IN DEPTH: El Niño is already affecting hurricane season)

Wind shear has been almost entirely stronger than average in the Caribbean since the season began in June, and was the second highest on record for early July, according to WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry.

While water temperatures are slightly above average from the Gulf through the subtropical Atlantic to western Europe, water temperatures between Africa and the Caribbean Sea are only near to slightly above average. Waters have warmed over the last few weeks because of abundant dry air (lack of clouds) and sinking air associated with El Niño.

Tropical waves departing Africa are expected to be less potent than in an average year because of a weak Atlantic Niña trying to take shape and drier conditions over Africa.

(MORE: Everything to know about El Niño | How it could affect hurricane tracks)

While this strong El Niño may make Caribbean travel less risky, it doesn't mean there won't be hurricane or tropical storm landfalls this season.

According to a recent Atmospheric G2 outlook, none of the seven similar El Niño seasons had more than one U.S. hurricane landfall.

Any storms that do form this season are going to have the best chance at development in the subtropics, or between Florida and Portugal.

But as we discussed in a previous article, there have been impactful hurricanes and tropical storms in past super El Niño seasons, including in the U.S.

When could the season wake up?

Computer models have occasionally shown sputtered attempts at development from the east Atlantic to the Southeast coast, but there are no clear signals that tropical development is possible over the next couple of weeks.

As we've said, wind shear remains stronger, but dry and/or dusty air has been prevalent across the tropical Atlantic in recent weeks, too.

August is the month we typically see Atlantic tropical activity rise dramatically as wind shear relaxes and water temperatures near their seasonal hottest time of the year.

How deep we'll go until we see the next Atlantic tropical storm (Cristobal) remains to be seen. The third named storm would have formed on Aug. 3, on average.

If you live in hurricane-prone areas, you should prepare for every hurricane season, regardless of seasonal forecasts.

It takes only one landfall in your area to make what was otherwise a quiet season one you'll never forget.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 10 years. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.

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