Your grocery bill is higher this year for plenty of reasons: inflation, tariffs, weaker harvests. But a new global report points to a quieter factor – water.

In a new report from The Food Systems Countdown Initiative, researchers looked at 197 countries and found that food-system emissions worldwide are running about 75% above recommended levels.  

The report published in the journal Nature Food concluded that not one country is closing the gap fast enough.

One key in those food systems is water. Farms use huge amounts of it to grow crops and raise animals, pulling it from rivers and reservoirs. Thirsty crops like almonds, rice and cotton add extra strain on places already short on water — including parts of the western U.S.

(MORE: Lake Mead now at record-low level)

From dry fields to your grocery bill

That strain can ripple into the prices you pay. A separate study found that water scarcity alone can explain nearly 75% of annual swings in global wheat prices between 2000 and 2021. It showed that a drought far away can nudge up the price of bread in your local store.

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It’s a scenario already playing out this year. Nearly half of the country is now under drought conditions after a summer of below-normal rain and above-normal temperatures.  

The new report encourages countries to recommit to transforming food systems and create progress when it comes to food affordability and lowering emissions.

“Accountability for food systems transformation requires accelerated progress — without it, efforts risk becoming performative rather than transformative. We can no longer afford to continue at the present pace,” said Mario Herrero, Professor, Ashley School of Global Development and the Environment, Cornell University.