The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that the current El Niño could be the strongest on record. In this week's news conference, it warns that the event is “literally off the monitoring charts that we have used for the past four decades.”

The latest

The WMO's latest seasonal outlook says tropical Pacific temperatures could run up to 3.8 degrees Celsius (6.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average during the three-month period from November 2026 to January 2027.

The three-month average is what is used to determine the strength of the El Niño.

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said that level has never appeared in the agency's records, only seeing the strongest El Niños reach about 3 degrees Celsius above average. 

Remember that forecasters declare an El Niño when the three-month average tops 0.5 degrees Celsius.

El Niño will peak toward the end of 2026, Saulo said, but its impacts will last well beyond that.

Get More of Our News on Google

Set The Weather Company as a 'Preferred Source' to get quicker access to the news you value.

What it could mean

El Niño is a climatological pattern that dramatically affects temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide. A strong El Niño is more disruptive to temperature and rainfall patterns.

The WMO's outlook points to:

- Southwest U.S.: Increased rainfall.

- Eastern North America and the northern Caribbean: Above-normal precipitation.

- Central America, the southern Caribbean and the Amazon: Higher drought risk.

- East Africa: Wetter conditions and flooding concerns through December.

- Southern Africa: Drier conditions from November, threatening crops and water supplies.

- Southeast Asia: Warmer, drier weather, with more heat, wildfire and smoke risk.

Remember that these are regional and seasonal outlooks, so individual weather events can stray from these predictions.

A humanitarian warning

U.N. Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Tom Fletcher said during the press conference that “this is serious, and we need to get serious. This El Niño is a behemoth. It is a wrecking ball.”

He said up to 50 million people could face increased hunger. The African Development Bank estimates the cost to African countries at $10 billion to $20 billion and predicts it will lower their GDP by 1 to 2%.

Fletcher said he has released more than $50 million to help 11 countries prepare. He called the next two weeks the critical window to act.

And an El Niño of this magnitude will likely impact numerous other countries and regions.

Preparation is key. If governments act on the forecasts now, the negative impacts will be lessened.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center uses a slightly different metric called Relative Oceanic Niño Index (or RONI) to measure El Niño and it is the standard that we use at The Weather Company. Using that metric, the same period (July-September) averaged 1.7 degrees Celsius above average and they are expecting El Niño to peak at or above 2.5 degrees Celsius above average at the end of this year.