November weather outlook: Will your region see an early winter?
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Here’s the latest weather outlook for your region as winter approaches and El Niño impacts continue.

Rob ShackelfordMichael Cohen
ByRob ShackelfordandMichael Cohen•
October 30, 2026Updated: October 30, 2026, 9:28 am EDTPublished: October 29, 2026, 6:09 am EDT

November outlook: How El Niño could impact your temperatures

The Weather Company has released the November weather forecast: Winter is closing in, and a lucky few will get an early preview, but millions across the country will wait another month for any sign of it. El Niño continues to shape the weather across the Lower 48, and this month is no exception.

Is winter delayed in your region?

The temperature map below shows those waiting for their winters to begin. Note that these maps are just an average, and you and your region could get a shock from Mother Nature.

(MORE: The weather myths about El Niño you’re probably getting wrong)

November Outlook Temperatures

The deepest reds stretch from the Dakotas to northern Indiana, across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes. This region should see the largest temperature departures this month.

Warmer-than-average conditions reach well beyond it, covering the Northern Plains, most of the Mississippi and Ohio valleys, and into the interior Northeast.

(THANKSGIVING TRAVEL: Where weather risk is highest this year)

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Eastern Rockies and Four Corners region, the Southern Plains and Southeast, and the major cities along the Interstate 95 corridor are expecting slightly above-average temperatures.

Meanwhile, average temperatures are expected from New England down to Florida and the southern portions of Louisiana, and stretching from Texas through the Rockies to the Pacific Northwest.

California and parts of Oregon, Nevada, Arizona and Utah will be the only below-average areas.

States getting soaked

Those in the Lower 48 should expect average amounts of precipitation. Here is a detailed breakdown:

The Pacific Northwest is the only below-average area in terms of expected precipitation. The areas potentially getting soaked stretch from the Gulf Coast of Texas to the mid-Atlantic coast of Maryland.

Slightly above-average precipitation stretches from California and the southern portions of New Mexico and Arizona to a large stretch from Texas to southern New Hampshire. Those in the West may actually not feel robbed of winter if these trends continue in the coming months.

(MORE: How a super El Niño could impact grocery prices this year)

November Precip Outlook

El Niño’s fingerprints

As we approach a record El Niño, certain weather patterns are unfolding.

The general winter pattern is warmer and drier in the northern tier, drier in the Midwest and wetter across the South.

While El Niño is still developing, it isn’t a perfect fit to the standard seen below. But there are quite a few similarities.

(MORE: Will this super El Niño push snow to the South? Here's the catch)

El Niño Pattern

Some of us may have to wait for winter’s touch, but for those who actually want fall, your time may have finally arrived.

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