Drought

Megadrought Risk Growing For United States, Climate Models Show

By the end of the century, we could be seeing the worst droughts in 1,000 years for the Great Plains and Southwestern United States.

The map at the top of this page shows the findings of several climate models when studying the future of soil moisture, according to NASA's Earth Observatory. On the map, brown shadings show soil that's drier than the 20th century average at 30 centimeters below the surface. Blue shadings show wetter-than-average soil at the same depth.

According to NASA, this map projects the soil moisture in the final decade of the 21st century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase at the current pace.

(MORE: Megadroughts Will Become the New Norm, NASA Says)

"Natural droughts like the 1930s Dust Bowl and the current drought in the Southwest have historically lasted maybe a decade or a little less," said Ben Cook, NASA climate scientist, in the report. "What these results are saying is we’re going to get a drought similar to those events, but it is probably going to last at least 30 to 35 years."

In studying several long-term climate models, Cook and other scientists estimate that there's a 60 percent chance of a decades-long drought by the end of the century. And that's if we can get greenhouse gas emissions to level out by 2050; if emissions continue to increase at the current rate, there's an 80 percent chance of a Southwest and Plains megadrought by 2099.

The map was released this week by NASA, and you can read more about the megadrought study here. The findings were published in February in the journal Science Advances.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Images of California's Prolonged Drought