MONSOON

Southwest Monsoon 2023 Makes Onset over India; Covers Southern Parts of Kerala, Tamil Nadu and the Arabian Sea

Thursday, June 8: The southwest monsoon has finally made its onset over Kerala today, i.e. June 8!

India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) latest bulletin reads: “During the past 24 hours, clouding has increased over Southeast Arabian Sea with Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) being more than 200 w/m2. The depth of westerlies over southeast Arabian Sea extends upto mid tropospheric levels. The strength of westerlies in the lower levels has increased to about 19 knots.

“Thus, there has been widespread rainfall over Kerala during the past 24 hours. Considering all the above-satisfied conditions, Southwest Monsoon has set in over Kerala today, the 8th of June, 2023.”

While the monsoon onset over Kerala this year was delayed by more than a week compared to its normal date of June 1, it has still arrived within the error window of IMD’s initial onset predictions, meant to last until June 8.

The onset this year is also the third-most delayed in the last 27 years. It sits right alongside the year 2019 (June 8), with only 1997, 2002 (both June 9) and 2013 (June 13) seeing bigger delays.

Now having covered most of southern Kerala, the southwest monsoon has also advanced into the remaining parts of south Arabian Sea, some parts of central Arabian Sea, the entire Lakshadweep area, most parts of south Tamil Nadu, the remaining parts of the Comorin area, the Gulf of Mannar and some more parts of southwest, central and northeast Bay of Bengal today.

From this point, the conditions are favourable for monsoon's further progression into the remaining parts of Kerala, some more parts of Tamil Nadu, central Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, and some parts of Karnataka and Northeast India during the next 48 hours.

Monsoon's late arrival and hampered progression over the Indian mainland, coupled with a drier-than-usual forecast for June, could force a delay in crop sowing across the country. This could, in turn, affect production and skyrocket prices as well.

But on the flip side, it will have no impact on the seasonal rainfall performance — great news, considering the country is anyway likely to experience a drier-than-usual monsoon in 2023, a likely El Niño year. The Weather Channel’s seasonal forecast estimates the countrywide seasonal rainfall this year at around 90% of monsoon's long-period average, which translates to precipitation worth 78.3 cm.

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