MONSOON

After Below-Normal Rains in June, July Rainfall to Exceed 106% of Long-Term Average, Predicts IMD

Probability rainfall forecast during July 2024
(India Meteorological Department)

Tuesday, July 2: Despite a timely start to the monsoon, India faced an 11% deficit in June rainfall compared to normal levels, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This shortfall predominantly affected central, north-western, and north-eastern regions, experiencing 14%, 33%, and 13% below-average rainfall, respectively. In contrast, the southern region enjoyed a surplus of 14% above average rainfall, providing a balanced national precipitation landscape.

Monsoon's progress in June

The monsoon, marking its early arrival in Kerala and the northeast on May 30, encountered a slowdown by mid-June. This delay exacerbated a prevailing heat wave in the northwest and affected states like West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh. The monsoon's progress is expected to reach the remaining parts of Rajasthan, Haryana, and Punjab by July 4-5, marking its complete onset across the country.

July forecast for India

Probability forecast of maximum and minimum temperatures during July 2024
(India Meteorological Department)

Historically, deficient June rainfall often precedes a compensatory July with normal to above-normal precipitation levels. IMD records indicate that in 20 out of 25 years following below-normal June rainfall, July witnessed favorable rainfall patterns. This trend inspires hope for a July recovery, with forecasts predicting above-normal rainfall nationwide, except in parts of the northeast.

IMD Director Mrutyunjay Mohapatra highlighted expectations for July's rainfall to exceed 106% of the long-period average, promising beneficial conditions for agriculture and water resources across most regions. However, varying rainfall patterns are anticipated in parts of the northeast, northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India.

Looking ahead, temperature projections suggest normal to below-normal maximum temperatures in northwest India and the southern peninsular region, except along the western coast. Conversely, above-normal maximum temperatures are anticipated in central, eastern, and northeastern India, alongside the western coast. Minimum temperatures are also forecasted to remain above normal across much of the country, except in the northwest and southeastern peninsular India.

Overall, July 2024 is anticipated to witness above-normal rainfall (106% of LPA) across the country, with normal to above-normal precipitation likely in most regions, except certain areas of northeast India, and parts of the northwest, east, and southeast peninsular India where below-normal rainfall could occur.

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