Over 97% of Countries Worldwide Likely to Witness Catastrophic Declines in Population As Birth Rates Plummet

From women birthing an average of 6.2 children in 1950 to just two in 2021, India’s fertility rate has taken such a mighty hit, that many experts believe that it may not even be enough to keep population levels stable in the future. However, this uncertainty may not be a problem restricted to just our country.

A groundbreaking study by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has revealed that the next few decades will witness a dramatic decline in childbirth across most regions, leading to what experts describe as a "staggering social change" on a global scale.

The research reveals that over three-quarters of countries will struggle to maintain their population size by 2050, with more than 97% facing a similar challenge by the end of the century. This decline in fertility rates will usher in a "demographically divided world," characterised by a stark contrast between regions experiencing plummeting birth rates and those undergoing a surge in childbirth.

For countries with shrinking birth rates, which will be most industrialised nations, this could pose several challenges. They will have to deal with the economic repercussions of a shrinking workforce, and figure out a way of supporting their ageing populations.

Low-income countries will have their own set of challenges due to an incoming baby boom. This includes countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, a region which is estimated to birth more than half the world’s babies by the end of this century. While the rapid growth of youthful populations is generally considered a good driver of economic development and social progress, learning to care for these younguns can be tricky in resource-limited regions, especially when they are often plagued by political instability and strained healthcare systems.

“There is very real concern that, in the face of declining populations and no clear solutions, some countries might justify more Draconian measures that limit reproductive rights," explains study author Natalia Bhattacharjee. "It is well-established that nations with strong women's rights are more likely to have better health outcomes and faster economic growth. It is imperative women’s rights are promoted and protected and that women are supported in having the number of children they wish and pursuing their careers.”

The implications of these findings extend beyond mere demographic shifts; they carry significant economic and social ramifications. The study highlights the need for proactive planning to address the impending demographic changes. While policies such as enhanced parental leave, free childcare, and financial incentives may offer some relief, the researchers caution that most countries, including India as mentioned earlier, will still fall below replacement levels. As a result, reliance on immigration to sustain economic growth will become inevitable in the long run.

The findings of this study have been published in The Lancet and can be accessed here.

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