4 Things to Watch in the Weather This Week

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The last week of June will feature more wet weather and building heat for some, while others will get a break from the excessive heat.

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The upper-level weather pattern will see a shift as the week progresses, with an upper-level ridge of high pressure, or northward bulge in the jet stream, building into the central and eastern U.S. while an upper-level trough, or southward dip in the jet stream, will develop in the West.

Below, we take a closer look at what these changes mean for the weather in the week ahead.

1. Early-Week Risk of Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Flooding

A low-pressure system pushed into the Plains on Sunday, bringing severe thunderstorms and flash flooding to parts of the region.

That system is sliding east-northeastward Monday and Tuesday through the Plains and into the upper Mississippi Valley.

Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are expected each day, with damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes possible.

(MORE: Severe Storms Expected Early This Week)

Midweek, this area of low pressure will track through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.

Enhanced rainfall is likely from the upper Mississippi Valley through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley midweek. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall is also possible in the Northeast, but generally lighter rainfall totals are anticipated, as this system is expected to be weakening.

2. Heat and Humidity Will Build in Central, Eastern U.S.

As mentioned, an upper-level ridge of high pressure, or heat dome, will develop over the central and eastern U.S. by late-week.

Hot and humid conditions will build from the Plains to the East. High and low temperatures will be 5 to 20 degrees above average from the central Plains into the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

Highs will likely climb above 90 degrees as far north as the Great Lakes, upstate New York and western New England late this week and into the weekend. A few record highs and record warm low temperatures are also possible this upcoming weekend.

The combination of temperatures in the 90s and high humidity will result in heat index values near or above 95 degrees for many locations, especially from the South into the mid-Mississippi Valley and mid-Atlantic. 

Lows will only drop into the 70s, not providing much relief from the heat overnight.

These hot and humid conditions are anticipated to last through the weekend and into the first week of July.

3. Showers, Storms Linger in the Southeast

A cold front will move into the Southeast early this week, then stall and linger over the region through midweek.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain likely for portions of the region through Wednesday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible at times, as there will be plenty of moisture in the region. Eastern North Carolina currently has the greatest chance from more than 3 inches of rainfall over the next few days.

This system will also bring a brief break from the above-average temperatures, with highs returning to near-average or slightly cooler than average for late June.

(MAPS: Weekly Planner)

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms will remain possible through late-week.  

4. Late-Week Changes For Parts of the West

An upper-level ridge of high pressure will bring mainly dry and above-average conditions to much of the West early- to mid-week. The exception to this will be along much of the California and Pacific Northwest coasts, where temperatures will trend slightly cooler-than-average due to onshore flow.

Otherwise, highs and lows will be 5 to 15 degrees above average into midweek, which translates into very hot conditions in portions of the Southwest and interior West.

Temperature changes are expected by late-week as an upper-level trough digs into the Pacific Northwest, California and the Great Basin region.

Cooler temperatures will spread across the region, with highs near- to slightly below-average expected beginning Thursday and lasting into the weekend.

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In addition, the chance for showers and thunderstorms will also return to parts of the Pacific Northwest and into the northern Rockies late-week.