USA National Forecast

November, Winter 2018-19 Temperature Outlook: Cold in the South, Mild in the West

At a Glance

Expect colder-than-average temperatures in the South and warmer-than-average temperatures in the West this winter.
El Niño and the strength of the polar vortex will be the biggest temperature influencers.

The temperature pattern for the U.S. likely will shift to a warmer pattern overall later in November, and a relatively mild December is anticipated before colder temperatures return for January and February.

In November, warmer-than-average conditions are expected in the West and Northeast. The warmer temperatures in the Northeast reflect the above-average conditions expected there early in the month.

Temperatures will be the most above average in California, Nevada and much of Oregon, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

Near- to slightly-above-average temperatures will be found from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. In much of the South and central Plains, near- to slightly-below-average temperatures are anticipated.

November temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

This forecast is influenced by the developing El Niño along with computer guidance.

(MORE: Here's How Much El Niño Influences Winter Temperatures)

"Historical El Niño aggregates and the CFS model depict a similar picture with widespread and significant warmth across the northern U.S., while medium range and sub-seasonal guidance/analogs are notably cooler in the central and southeastern U.S.," Crawford said.

However, there is a risk that if the shift to warmer conditions does not occur in the second half of November that some regions may see a colder November than currently depicted.

Temperature Outlook December Through February

The overall trend of colder-than-average temperatures in the South and warmer-than-average temperatures in the West is generally expected to persist into this winter as well.

For December through February below-average temperatures will prevail in the South and into parts of the Midwest, while near- to-slightly-below-average conditions are expected from the southern Plains into the Northeast.

(MAPS: Average High and Low Temperatures)

Meanwhile, much-above-average temperatures will likely dominate in the Northwest with near- to-slightly-above-average temperatures from the Southwest to the upper Mississippi Valley.

December through February temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Crawford indicates that the two big factors in the winter temperature forecast are the developing El Niño and the strength of the polar vortex.

El Niño conditions suggest a colder winter in parts of the eastern and central U.S., especially later in the winter. In addition, a weaker polar vortex is possible, which would also suggest a colder winter.