Wild Waterpark Facts To Blow Your Floaties Off

Most of the Lower 48 can expect warmer than average temperatures this spring, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Parts of the South, Northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley, may experience near-average or slightly above-average conditions during the March through May period.

Temperatures will likely be the most above average from eastern Arizona into New Mexico, southwestern Texas, southwestern Colorado and southeastern Utah during the spring months.

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The record-strong positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the strong polar vortex are two important factors in this forecast because they usually result in colder air generally being confined to the polar regions.

The AO is a climate pattern characterized by winds circulating counterclockwise around the Arctic. When the AO is in a positive phase, it typically correlates with a stronger polar vortex. A strong polar vortex doesn't allow cold arctic air to sag into the United States, keeping things warmer.

This upper level atmospheric pattern with a positive AO and a strong polar vortex has generally been in place this winter and has allowed the contiguous U.S. to experience its warmest winter on record through the end of January.

In fact, the AO just reached its highest value on record in early February, and the polar vortex remains very strong as a result.

(MORE: Winter 2019-20 Has Been the Warmest on Record So Far in the Lower 48)

The polar vortex is expected to remain strong into late February, which likely means a strong positive AO will persist.

Data suggests that March will also have a strong AO and polar vortex when there is a very strong AO in place in February.

"The historically strong polar vortex (positive AO) has been in control of the U.S. pattern over the last two months, and it seems to be resistant to weakening. Historical correlations and recent model forecasts suggest that the vortex should remain strong through at least March, with the continued lack of sustained cold air in the U.S. as we go well into spring," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company.

This would correlate with milder-than-usual temperatures to start spring, with only limited periods of colder air spilling into the Lower 48.

Here's a look at what to expect month by month.

March 2020

Meteorological spring begins March 1, and the first month of spring is expected to be a mild one.

Above-average temperatures will likely stretch from the Southwest to the Midwest and East. Temperatures will be the highest above average from parts of the Four Corners region into Texas, as well as into the southern half of the Florida Peninsula.

Near to slightly above-average temperatures are anticipated from the Northwest into the upper Mississippi Valley, while near- to slightly below-average temperatures may be found in much of Montana, North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota.

April 2020

In April, areas from the Northern and Central Plains into the East can expect temperatures to be near or slightly warmer than average, with the exception of far northeastern Maine, where temperatures may trend slightly cooler.

Above-average temperatures will likely be found across most of the West and into parts of Texas.

May 2020

As spring comes to an end, above-average temperatures are anticipated for most of the contiguous United States. Much of the Rockies and Great Basin can expect temperatures to be well above average.

Areas of the South, from eastern Texas and southeastern Arkansas into South Carolina and Florida, may have temperatures closer to average.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.