Your Spring Temperature Outlook

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S​pring temperatures may be stubbornly cool in parts of the West, but should recover nicely by May over much of the rest of the country.

The West Coast, California and the Desert Southwest may skew cooler than average from April through June, according to an outlook released Thursday by Atmospheric G2 and The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

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Meanwhile, a generally warmer-than-average April through June is forecast from the Plains across the South and Midwest into the mid-Atlantic states.

This outlook is an overall trend for April through June. Typical of any spring, there will be times when areas are warmer or colder than the map above.

Here's a look at the month-by-month outlook and what is driving this forecast.

April

T​his month has trended colder in much of the West, but a bit warmer in parts of the Great Lakes and East Coast than the previous outlook.

I​n general, areas from the Pacific Northwest and Northern California to the upper Mississippi Valley could skew at least slightly cooler than average in April. The Northwest, northern Rockies and northern High Plains are expected to be the coldest relative to average in April.

Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2, said there are several factors contributing to this lingering western chill in April, including an impressively heavy snowpack that can reflect more of the sun's energy.

"​We are not fighting the entrenched pattern (from March) for April," Crawford said.

As has been the case for much of the winter, much of the South and East is expected to at least skew milder than usual. Areas from central Texas to Florida to the mid-Atlantic are forecast to be farthest above average in April.

May

You may notice some significant changes in May, compared to April.

F​irst, most of the nation from the Pacific Northwest and Rockies eastward is expected to at least skew warmer than average in May. Areas from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley and Southeast are likely to have a warm May. The Great Lakes and Northeast are expected to be farthest above average.

O​nly parts of the Desert Southwest and California may skew slightly cooler than average.

June

June's outlook is interesting in a couple of ways.

F​irst, much of the country is expected to be at least somewhat hotter than average, particularly from the Southeast to the Northern Rockies. The area most likely to experience a hot June is the Northern Plains, including some areas that have been repeatedly hit by heavy snow from last fall through early spring.

Parts of the Northeast, particularly in New England, may be cooler than usual in June.

S​ome cooler-than-average weather might also linger in parts of the Southwest and Southern California.

W​hat's Behind The Outlook

Polar Vortex

Y​es, the polar vortex might still have an influence into April.

T​his whirling cone of low pressure in the stratosphere, far above where most of our weather occurs, weakened due to a sharp warming known as a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in February.

This matters because disruptions in the polar vortex can sometimes set up blocking patterns weeks later that unleash more widespread cold air deeper into the U.S.

T​hat has happened in March, with at least more periodic intrusions of colder air into the country, particularly in the West.

C​rawford noted the influence of an SSW typically lasts for a couple of months, so it's possible that the blocking patterns bringing more cold air into at least parts of the country could linger into April.

La Niña Is Gone

A​nother factor in play this spring is one that has vanished.

I​n early March, NOAA declared that the rare three-year La Niña finally ended.

La Niña is the periodic cooling of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, and the interaction of this cooler-than-average water with the atmosphere can affect weather conditions around the globe.

E​xamining previous springs this century during which La Niña ended, Crawford found April was chilly along the West Coast but warm from the Rockies into the nation's midsection and South.

H​e also noted the atmosphere usually takes time to respond to the vanished La Niña, meaning the stubborn jet stream could still deliver cool, wet weather to the West Coast, including California, in April.

E​l Niño Ahead?

A​s of the time this article was published in mid-March, increasing model guidance was forecasting an El Niño to develop possibly as soon as this summer.

(​READ: El Niño May Be Ahead)

The opposite of La Niña, an El Niño is the periodic warming of the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean that can also influence weather patterns over the globe.

I​f this El Niño develops sooner, it could lead to a cooler summer in parts of the Midwest and Northeast beginning as soon as June, according to Crawford.

F​or more on the potential impacts of an El Niño on both summer temperatures and rainfall, become a premium subscriber and check out our exclusive, in-depth early analysis of the summer outlook.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.