USA National Forecast

Late Winter's Handoff To Early Spring Could Mean Increasingly Above-Average Temperatures For Many

At a Glance

February's forecast still reflects El Niño conditions, but there is a chance it could turn out colder.
El Niño will fade away through the spring months.
That could mean many parts of the Lower 48 will see warmer-than-average temperatures develop deeper into the new season.

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Winter's handoff to early spring could feature increasingly warmer-than-average temperatures across the United States as El Niño gradually meets its demise.

Here's the big picture for what to expect from February to April: Above-average temperatures are most likely from the Northwest into the Rockies, Northern and Central Plains, upper Midwest and New England. Parts of the South and mid-Atlantic might see temperatures that are near average.

But, this is an overall capture for the three months as a whole. The month-by-month outlook that follows below reveals a warmer trend for many through spring.

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February still has the thumbprint of El Niño's influence, but there is a colder risk: The mid-January arctic outbreak deviated from the milder-than-average temperatures El Niño typically brings to the Northwest and Midwest, but the latest outlook for February shows that type of pattern could be in place during winter's final full month. Similarly, the somewhat below-average temperatures expected in the South next month are also typical in an El Niño winter.

There is a possibility that February could turn out colder than the current forecast shows. One reason is that mid-January cold spells like the one the Lower 48 has seen this year are often followed by colder Februaries, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and author of the outlook. So, that will be one thing to watch for in the forecast model guidance as we inch closer to February.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Fading El Niño could mean a warming trend heading deeper into spring: The strong El Niño has peaked and will begin to fade as we head through the coming spring months. That transition, which might possibly even trend toward La Niña conditions by sometime this summer, could have some warming influence on what to expect this spring.

The end result is that warmer-than-average temperatures are favored in many parts of the Lower 48 the deeper we head into spring, particularly by April as seen in the second map below.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.

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