Summer 2024 Temperature Outlook: It Could Be One Of The Nation's Hottest

We can expect an abnormally hot summer this year, according to Dr. Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 and author of the latest outlook released Thursday from The Weather Company and AG2.

In fact, there are signs in the long-range models and climate trends that this could end up being one of the hottest summers on record.

Summer 2024 Outlook

Warmer-than-average conditions are expected to encompass much of the country this summer, with parts of the West, Gulf Coast and mid-Atlantic expected to be near average or slightly warmer.

Temperatures will be the farthest above average for parts of the Southwest and Plains into the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast.

J​une Outlook

Starting the summer in June, the core of the heat is anticipated to be in parts of Texas and New Mexico.

P​arts of Southern California and Arizona have the highest chance for cooler-than-average temperatures, while parts of the West will be near average or slightly warmer.

July Outlook

The hottest temperatures compared to average will likely shift northward in July and stretch from parts of the Desert Southwest into the Northern Plains, Ohio Valley and Northeast.

August Outlook

As summer comes to a close in August, the heat is expected to extend from parts of the West Coast into New England.

Temperatures farthest above average will extend from the Dakotas into the Great Lakes, but a generally hotter-than-average August is expected across the nation.

W​hat's In Store For May?

L​ooking ahead to next month, we expect near-average conditions across much of the southern half of the country, with the exception of south Texas, which could see above-average temperatures.

T​he northern tier and Northeast are most likely to see warmer temperatures than average.

The La Niña Factor

Many factors are used to produce seasonal forecasts.

One that is dramatically different from last summer is the transition from El Niño to La Niña. This is the periodic warming and cooling of the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperatures.

This year's expected change to La Niña conditions means we anticipate far warmer than average temperatures in much of the U.S.

W​e expect the transition to La Niña to happen by late summer, which is part of the reason we expect August to be the most above average out of the summer months.