USA National Forecast

Late Summer, Early Fall Outlook: US Warmth Could Lag Into October

Here's Your August-October Outlook

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Late summer heat may lag into early fall in much of the United States, according to an outlook released Sunday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

Most will be warm. Above-average temperatures are expected from the Great Basin and Southwest to the East Coast, with parts of the Rockies, Plains and Midwest being the most above average.

The lone exception may be the immediate West Coast, from Oregon to Southern California. Temperatures there could be pretty typical as a whole, running slightly above or below average.

Let's break down what each of the next three months may have in store.

The August outlook was tweaked. One adjustment made from last month's August outlook is a tad less heat in the East.

The Rockies and Northern Plains are likely to be much hotter than average, even by August standards. However, the general swath from the Southwest to the Great Lakes and much of the East should still trend above average in August, overall.

"Given persistence and long-term model solutions, we've moved the focus of the heat a bit farther west and south in August, while reducing (temperatures) a bit in the rest of the eastern half of the U.S.," wrote Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 in the outlook.

Areas near the Gulf Coast, including Florida, may only be modestly warm. An active Atlantic hurricane season is one factor in that muted Gulf Coast heat outlook. August is one of the three most active months of the hurricane season.

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Heat will lag into September. Even though the fall equinox is in late September, don't expect the heat to relax much.

Parts of the Midwest, central Plains and Southwest are still most likely to be hotter than usual in September. However, much of the nation, from the East Coast to the Great Basin, is also expected to skew warm.

Once again, the Deep South, Gulf Coast and Florida may not be much hotter than usual, possibly due to increased rainfall during the peak month of an active hurricane season.

The only heat escape in September may be in the Pacific Northwest and near the California coast.

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Temperatures may not fall much in October. If you're looking forward to the arrival of crisp, cool fall air masses, you may be a bit disappointed early this autumn.

October is most likely to be warmer than usual from the Great Lakes and interior Northeast through the Midwest and Plains states.

In fact, the only areas of the country that may remain at least slightly above average are in the Northwest, much of California's coast and from the Florida Peninsula to the coastal Carolinas.

Nation's hottest summer? 1936 and 2021 are tied as the hottest summers in U.S. records dating to 1895, according to NOAA. Summer 2022, followed by 2012 and 2011, round out the top five.

June was the Lower 48's second hottest on record in 130 years, behind only June 2021, according to NOAA's calculations. July also kicked off with a record week-plus long heat wave in the West.

So, even with the slightly scaled back Eastern heat in the August outlook, the nation could still threaten its hottest summer record.

According to Climate Central, summers have warmed since 1970 in 230 of 241 U.S. locations they investigated. They found 58% of those locations experience at least two more weeks of unusually hot summer days today than in 1970.