Fall-Early Winter Outlook: Widespread Warmth Through November, Then A Colder December For Some

F​all warmth will be widespread across much of the United States but a chillier pattern could arrive by December, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

Summer lag into fall: Above-average temperatures are expected from the Southwest to the Plains, Midwest and Northeast over the rest of 2024.

The only exception may be in the Northwest, including Washington, parts of Oregon, northern Idaho and far northwest Montana, where temperatures over the last three months may run slightly below average.

L​et's examine each of the next three months in more detail.

October heat: While our outlook has trended a tad cooler, this still may not be your kind of October if you're looking for crisp, cool air to check out an apple orchard.

New England, most of the Great Lakes and Southwest are expected to have a much warmer-than-usual October. Much of the Mississippi Valley and Plains are also expected to have a warmer-than-usual month.

T​he only exception to this may be the Pacific Northwest, where October may skew slightly cooler, and the Southeast, where October warmth may be muted due to tropical activity.

"​It is rather difficult these days to forecast any sort of widespread below-normal temperatures in a seasonal forecast," wrote Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2 in the outlook.

"​It still seems like years since we've had a month cooler than (the) 30-year average," Crawford also wrote.

November still mild: While we may think of November as a chilly month, that may not be the case as often this year.

A​n expansive swath from the Southwest to the Northern Plains is expected to be much warmer than average, while above-average warmth is generally forecast from the Great Basin to Texas to the western Great Lakes.

Parts of the Southeast, including Florida, may be the only area of the country that may skew a tad cooler than usual in November, just as the Sunshine State's "dry season" arrives.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

December change: We may finally see a break in the overall warmth by December, at least for some.

M​uch of the northern tier of the U.S., from the Northwest to the Northern Plains and upper Midwest, may skew a bit colder than average in December.

T​hat may be due, in part, to a weak La Niña expected to develop this fall. According to AG2's Todd Crawford, Decembers during previous weak La Niñas tended to be colder than average in the northern U.S., particularly in the Northern Plains.

T​hat said, much of the nation's South is still expected to be milder than usual in December, with at least some of that mild air also expected in the Northeast.