Election Day Weather Forecast: Rain In Swing States | Weather.com
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Here's how Tuesday's forecast is shaping up, and what effect that might have on the day's turnout.

By

Jan Childs and Jonathan Erdman

November 5, 2024

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Election Day weather will include rain for some - including key swing states - and that has impacted turnout on the final day of voting in past years.

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Impact on turnout: Research indicates that there may be some links between voter turnout and weather. In particular, several studies have shown that rain can have a negative effect on ballots cast on election day.

Lines of voters wait in the rain to cast their vote on election day 2012 in St. Petersburg, Florida.

(Edward Linsmier/Getty Images)

While the decrease was more often seen among Democratic voters, experts say that might have more to do with urban vs. rural populations than it does politics.

“Democratic voters are concentrated in urban areas which means they’re more likely to walk to the polls than Republicans are and they’re more likely to have to stand outside if they wait in line," Adam Cayton, an assistant professor at the University of West Florida who specializes in U.S. politics, told us ahead of the 2020 election.

Most studies show the impact is relatively small, but even small numbers can make a big difference in close elections like this year’s presidential matchup and others in recent years.

And there is a new twist in all this. An analysis published earlier this year notes that a rise in early voting and mail-in ballots could lessen the impact of weather.