Election Day Weather: Rain Possible In Two Swing States

Election Day weather Tuesday will include rain for some - including key swing states - and that has impacted turnout on the final day of voting in past years.

The forecast: On Tuesday, a cold front will slice through the nation’s mid section. That will bring a threat of showers and thunderstorms from the Great Lakes and upper Midwest to the lower Mississippi Valley, parts of coastal Texas and Louisiana.

The key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin could see rain, at times, along with gusty winds associated with the cold front.

(​MAPS: 7-Day Rain, Snow US Forecast)

Ahead of the front, record high temperatures in the 70s and 80s are expected from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast.

(For even more granular weather data tracking in your area, view your 15-minute forecast in our Premium Pro experience.)

Impact on turnout: Research indicates that there may be some links between voter turnout and weather. In particular, several studies have shown that rain can have a negative effect on ballots cast on election day.

While the decrease was more often seen among Democratic voters, experts say that might have more to do with urban vs. rural populations than it does politics.

“Democratic voters are concentrated in urban areas which means they’re more likely to walk to the polls than Republicans are and they’re more likely to have to stand outside if they wait in line," Adam Cayton, an assistant professor at the University of West Florida who specializes in U.S. politics, told us ahead of the 2020 election.

Most studies show the impact is relatively small, but even small numbers can make a big difference in close elections like this year’s presidential matchup and others in recent years.

And there is a new twist in all this. An analysis published earlier this year notes that a rise in early voting and mail-in ballots could lessen the impact of weather.