Winter Temperature Forecast Remains Mild For South, East And Trends Colder In Northwest

W​inter temperatures are forecast to be warmer than average for a large portion of the southern and eastern United States, but the Northwest has trended colder, according to an updated outlook released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

T​he big picture for the next three months: A large area from the Southwest to the East Coast is forecast to have above-average temperatures from December through February. The Deep South is expected to see temperatures farthest above average.

M​uch of the Northwest, northern Rockies and Northern Plains could skew colder than average. Since the last outlook was issued in October, the forecast has trended colder from Washington and northern and western Oregon to northern Idaho and a large part of Montana.

Keep in mind this outlook is an overall three-month trend. Therefore, we will likely see periods that are warmer or colder in each respective region of the country when compared to what is shown above.

"While winters are clearly warming, there has been increasing cold volatility in recent years," said Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2. He added, "We expect one to two spells of big cold again this winter, more likely early than late given La Niña conditions."

Overall, the best shot at colder weather could be in December. As alluded to above, a weak La Niña is favored this winter, which has historically led to the early part of winter having the best shot at intrusions of colder air in the East.

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J​anuary and February's forecasts contrast a warmer South, East versus colder Northwest. Historically, these two months are when a breakdown of the polar vortex has led to extended periods of colder weather in some winters. But that has a lower chance of happening this winter than usual, according to Crawford.

Forecasters will still keep an eye on that possibility through the coming months, but for now, a broad area from the nation's southern tier to portions of the Midwest and Northeast is expected to see above-average temperatures in January and February. The South is forecast to see temperatures that are farthest above average.

The Northwest will once again have colder-than-average temperatures in the first two months of 2024, but February might be the farthest below average.

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Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.