January-March Temperature Forecast Features Milder South And East, Colder Northwest Contrast

Temperatures in the first three months of 2025 could feature an overall colder Northwest and milder-than-average South and East contrast, but there is some possible month-to-month variability, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

T​he big picture for the next three months: Above-average temperatures are favored in a broad area from the southern tier into portions of the Midwest and Northeast for January to March as a whole. Parts of the Southwest, Southern Plains and lower and mid-Mississippi valleys could be most above average.

Contrast that with the Northwest, which is most favored to have somewhat colder-than-average temperatures.

J​anuary forecast trends colder in the Northeast, but milder in the Northwest. Notice how the outlook for January looks a bit different in the northern tier compared to what the overall picture for January to March shows above. Specifically, the Northeast is skewed somewhat colder than average amid widespread above-average temperatures elsewhere, especially from the Mountain West into the Mississippi Valley.

However, forecasters at Atmospheric G2 say there is high uncertainty surrounding the January forecast.

• A deeper dive on January's uncertainty: That chance of colder weather in the Northeast hinges on the possibility of the positive phase of what's called the Pacific–North American pattern returning by mid-month. This pattern, which was in place for the first half of December, is associated with a southward-plunging jet stream sending arctic air into the eastern states.
• W​hile there are indications historically that this pattern might return for a period of time in January and bring more rounds of cold air to the East, it's not a guarantee given conflicting computer model guidance. So it's possible this January forecast could shift in a future update coming later this month depending on atmospheric indicators at that time.

F​ebruary and March feature a big contrast across the country. Colder-than-average temperatures are likeliest in the Northwest and Northern Plains, especially in January. Much of the South is expected to see far-above-average temperatures for both months. The Northeast could be much warmer than average in February and remain at least somewhat above average in March.

• A deeper dive on February and March: "We do expect a more classic negative Pacific North American pattern to emerge as we head towards February/March and we have not made any significant changes to those forecast maps," said Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.
• T​he negative phase of the pattern Crawford mentions tends to allow the jet stream to drop southward into the western states, opening the door for colder air. So that's why temperatures are favored to be colder than average in that region as we end winter and emerge into early spring. The East sees the opposite, with the jet stream riding to the north allowing mild air to dominate, though periodic cold plunges can still happen.

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.