Memorial Day Weekend Weather Forecast: Sluggish Storm Could Dampen Plans As National Temperature Split Sets Up

Cooler Temps Settle In For Memorial Day

Whether you are traveling or planning outdoor activities, weather conditions this Memorial Day weekend could be a factor to weigh into your decision-making, especially east of the Rockies.

Travel, particularly by car, is expected to be busy this year with AAA anticipating that a record 45.1 million people will venture at least 50 miles from home over the holiday period. Here's a look at where rainfall could slow some down and how a nationwide temperature split might factor into your activities.

Who Could Be Wet Vs. Dry

-Saturday: The first day of the holiday weekend could feature wet weather in two areas.

Scattered showers from a departing low combined with cool temperatures over Upstate New York and New England favor making plans indoors.

Otherwise, some clusters of showers and storms could dampen plans in the Northern Rockies, and in spots over the Central Plains southeastward to parts of the lower and mid-Mississippi valleys. Localized heavy rainfall might trigger flooding through overnight, especially in Missouri and adjacent parts of eastern Kansas, northern Arkansas and western Illinois.

-Sunday: Those expecting to spend time outdoors from the Plains into portions of the Midwest and South might be wise to have a Plan B just in case. Areas shaded in green below have rain chances at some point during the day, but keep in mind this is subject to change since it's dependent on how a slow-moving storm evolves.

Heavy rain could produce a flash flood threat, especially from northern Texas and eastern Oklahoma to parts of Missouri, Arkansas and the lower-Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Farther north, showers in the Northern Plains should be the hit-or-miss variety.

-Memorial Day: The sluggish-moving storm will nudge a bit farther south and east on Monday. That means rain and some thunderstorms will plague portions of South. This could mean a washout for some, but for others, it might only interrupt part of the day. The rainfall could also be heavy in spots.

The forecast is still uncertain, especially when it comes to whether rain will impacts parts of the Midwest and mid-Atlantic, so check back for updates.

Once again, the West should trouble-free for most, but we can't rule out some showers and storms in the Central and Southern Rockies.

Temperature Split

-Midwest, Northeast Keep Their Cool: The general theme is that high temperatures will be below average for at least part of the holiday weekend in these regions. Highs in the 60s and lower 70s are commonplace all three days, with even some 50s in upstate New York and New England on Saturday requiring a jacket.

-South Sweats: Florida and the Gulf Coast states to the south of Interstate 20 will see summer-like heat in the 90s on Saturday and Sunday, so a pool or a beach is a great place to hang out and cool off. Increasing rain and thunderstorms on Monday will knock temperatures down in much of the South, except Florida.

-Western Contrast: The Southwest will feel like summer unless you are in coastal Southern California, where the Pacific Ocean's influence keeps it cooler. Lower elevations of the Northwest and Rockies will generally be in the 60s and 70s

Chris Dolce has been a senior digital meteorologist with weather.com for nearly 15 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.