November Outlook: Warm Start, Possible Late-Month Chill

Here’s Your November Outlook

We’re expecting to stuff much of the country with well-above-average temperatures in November, but there is one catch to this outlook.

We’ll get to that in a bit. But first, we have to start with the main plate at hand: that big purple area on the map below, produced by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

Since the last outlook for November was made, forecasts for the month have warmed even more from Albuquerque to Chicago.

The outlook follows the idea that most recent La Niña years with warm Octobers are followed by warm Novembers in the Central U.S.

Putting that pattern aside, long-range models back this idea with the first few weeks of November being warmer than average.

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The Northwest and Southeast could be closer to the November averages, which means highs in the 40s/50s and the 60s/70s, respectively.

Now, for that catch:

Over the last few La Niña (astronomical) autumns, there has been a pattern change in the last half of November or into early December.

(La Niña Has Developed: What It Means For Winter)

Crawford warns that the risk of colder events grows, relative to average, as we move into winter. Related to the winter as a whole, “analogs/models suggest there will be a lot of cold air available in the western hemisphere,” Crawford notes in a look ahead at the cooler months.

Exactly when that side dish of cooler air may occur, that remains to be seen.

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What about precipitation? The overall forecast hasn’t changed much: drier weather expected across the southern tier with more rain and snow across the northern tier, especially in the Northwest and Northeast.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.