USA National Forecast

March Forecast Trending Warmer But With Questions Later In The Month

You might be reaching for summer clothes in parts of the West, but keep the jackets nearby in the East. Here's the latest March outlook.

Will March Bring The Warmth You're Hoping For?

Temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than average compared to previous forecasts for March, according to an updated outlook released Friday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.

What you should know: The West is expected to be well above average for temperatures while the Great Lakes and Northeast will be closer to average or slightly below average. The first half of the month could be warmer than the second half of the month.

What has changed:

- The outlook has warmed for much of the country compared to the outlook released a couple of weeks ago, particularly in the West.

- The Northeast is still likely to see slightly cooler than average temperatures, but the forecast has warmed slightly, except in Maine.

- Parts of the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida are expected to be slightly closer to average than before, but still well above average in the temperature department.

As the seasons change, as do the drivers of weather in March.

We'll see a fading influence of a weakening La Niña throughout the month, so we have to start looking elsewhere for influences.

Persistent chilly weather has hung around the East Coast so far this year due to a dip in the jet stream. And that jet stream is expected to become a little more lazy, at least temporarily. Instead of dipping southward, it is expected to move more west-to-east. The jet stream will also begin its typical northward retreat with the seasonal change. This will allow more warmth to flood into the country, at least for the first half of the month.

(MORE: What A Fading La Niña Means For Spring, Hurricane Season)

This relaxing of the jet stream is expected to be a temporary pattern change, according to Todd Crawford, author of the outlook. There are some colder risks later in the month, particularly in the East. Sorry to those of you in the Northeast that have had it with the cooler weather.

Crawford highlights the possibility of a sudden stratospheric warming event adding to the risks of a cold finish to March. That warming would cause the jet stream to fluctuate more, releasing more cooler Canadian air southward. We saw a similar pattern during parts of the winter, which led to above average temps across the West with cooler temperatures for parts of the East.

As a reminder, here's what we see in March, on average.