USA National Forecast

January Outlook Update: Much Colder in the Northwest, Northern Plains as the Gulf Coast Remains Mild

At a Glance

Colder-than-average temperatures are expected in the Northwest, and it will be warmer than typical near the Gulf Coast.
One influence on the nation's weather will be the ongoing weak La Niña.

January 2017 is now expected to be much colder than average from the Pacific Northwest into the upper Midwest, while parts of the Gulf Coast states will see a mild January, according to an outlook released Wednesday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

Pictured here is the January 2017 temperature outlook. Areas not shaded have an equal chance of above- or below-average temperatures.
(The Weather Company, an IBM Business)

"There is high confidence for a stretch of notably cold weather during the first couple of weeks of the month, with similar, but slightly earlier, timing as in December" said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

The expected trend of a cold January in the Northwest, northern Plains and parts of the upper Midwest continues what we've seen in December.

(MORE: Winter Storm Central)

Colder-than-average temperatures have gripped much of the northern tier, especially the Pacific Northwest. Snow and ice have already occurred on a couple of occasions this December in the lower elevations of the Pacific Northwest due to the cold temperatures.

The East is expected to continue to experience periods of colder temperatures, along with periodic warm ups and an overall milder back-half of January.

One of the biggest factors for the temperature pattern expected in January is La Niña. La Niña is the periodic cooling of eastern Pacific equatorial water, which can exert some influence on the atmospheric pattern, particularly in the colder months.

La Niña usually correlates with colder-than-average temperatures in the northern and western U.S with warmer-than-average temperatures in the southern and eastern U.S, which is overall what is expected in January.

(MORE: La Niña is Expected to Last Through Winter | Winter Storm Central)

In fact, the best chance for above-average temperatures in January will be toward the Gulf Coast and in Florida, which is fairly typical for a La Niña winter.

Late-Winter Outlook: January-March

Colder-than-average temperatures are expected to continue in the Northwest into February and March, while above-average temperatures persist and spread across the South.

Elsewhere, a large swath of the Midwest and Northeast is forecast to see temperatures generally near average for the January-March period.