November 2017 Temperature Outlook: Colder Than Average in Northwest; Warmer Than Average in the South | The Weather Channel
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USA National Forecast

November will bring above-average temperatures in the southern tier of the U.S. and below-average temperatures in the northern Rockies and northern Plains.

ByLinda LamOctober 30, 2017



Areas in the southern U.S. and in the East can expect a warmer-than-average November while cooler-than-average conditions are likely from the Pacific Northwest into the Upper Midwest, according to the latest outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

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This is a change from the pattern ending October, which has featured chilly conditions for much of the Central and Eastern U.S. and anomalous warmth in parts of the West.

(MORE: Two California Locations Tied the U.S. Record for the Hottest Temperature So Late in the Year)

Above-average temperatures are expected from southern Arizona into the Southeast, with the highest above-average temperatures likely in southern Texas in November. Near-to-slightly-above-average temperatures are also anticipated from California eastward into Oklahoma and into parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

Meanwhile, below-average conditions will stretch from areas just east of the Cascades eastward into the western Dakotas. Locations in central and western Montana may see temperatures the greatest below average. Near-to-slightly-below-average conditions are also likely for the Pacific Northwest Coast into the central Rockies and the Upper Midwest.


November 2017 temperature outlook from The Weather Company, an IBM Business.


There are signs of this weather pattern emerging in the first few days of November due to a change in the jet stream that is expected by the first weekend in November.

(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast)

"The early November pattern will be noteworthy due to the very large reservoir of cold air residing in western Canada into the northwestern quarter of the U.S. The hard forecast problem is how far southward/eastward this cold air will be allowed to progress," said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company.

However, Crawford notes that there are some computer models that indicate that there could be a push of colder temperatures toward the east and south in the second half of November.

(MORE: La Niña Could Impact Weather Conditions in the U.S. This Winter)

This temperature pattern is similar to what is expected in a La Niña winter. A La Niña watch is in effect and NOAA indicates a 55 to 65 percent chance of La Niña conditions during the late fall and upcoming winter.

A weak La Niña is anticipated this winter, which could lead to a warm and dry winter across the southern tier and colder-than-average conditions in the northern Plains and Upper Midwest.

(MORE: Winter 2017-18 Forecast)

It's important to keep in mind the forecast is just an overall expectation for the month, and the forecast is compared to average temperatures.


Average Highs in November


When compared to average highs, a warmer-than-average November could mean fairly mild conditions with highs averaging in the 70s and 80s from the Southwest to the Southeast.

On the other hand, a colder-than-average November may translate into highs averaging only in the 20s and 30s for locations from the northern Rockies to the Upper Midwest.

(MAPS: Average High and Low Temperatures)


Average Lows in November


This below-average pattern could also allow lows to plummet into the single digits and teens for areas just east of the Cascades through the northern Rockies and into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

The above-average pattern in the South could lead to lows only dipping into the 50s and 60s.

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