Dangerous Heat Wave Ahead For Midwest, Northeast | Weather.com
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It was only a matter of time before a long-lived heat wave would develop in the Midwest and Northeast. This one could last from late this week into early next week.

Jonathan Erdman

By

Jonathan Erdman

just now

Dangerous Heat Ahead For Midwest, Northeast

An expansive heat wave will spread through the central U.S. as summer officially arrives late this week and then into the East, bringing the hottest temperatures of the year and uncomfortably muggy air to the Midwest and Northeast.

Here are the main takeaways from the forecast:

When Will Heat Arrive?

Here's when we expect the heat to move in:

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- Plains: Beginning Thursday

- Mississippi Valley: Beginning Friday

- Rest of Midwest, Northeast: Beginning this weekend

(MAPS: 10-Day Forecast US Highs/Lows)

How Hot?

- In general, we're forecasting highs in the 90s to spread over much of the country east of the Rockies, except for the far northern tier.

- Parts of the Great Lakes and interior Northeast have yet to reach 90 so far this year, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

- A few locations could approach or top 100 degrees during the heat wave, including Denver by Friday, which only happens twice a year on average. New York City and Philadelphia could also flirt with the century mark during the peak of the heat wave next week.

- New York's Central Park hasn't reached 100 degrees since July 18, 2012, according to the National Weather Service.

Forecast Highs Next Week

Humid, Too

- More oppressive humidity will accompany the heat wave late this week into next week.

- This will particularly be the case in the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, but also into the upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and at least parts of the mid-Atlantic and interior Northeast.

- That means the heat index, or feels-like temperature, will be in the triple digits on one or more days for some cities in the Midwest and Northeast this weekend into early next week.

(MORE: Why The Dew Point Temperature Matters)

This map depicts where the muggiest air is expected in the central and eastern U.S. The higher the dew point, the more humid the air. In general, dew points of 70 degrees or higher are very humid.

Forecast Dew Point

How Long Will It Last?

- Plains: Relief should arrive by next Monday

- Mississippi Valley: Relief may arrive in most areas by next Tuesday

- Rest of Midwest: Relief may arrive by next Wednesday

- East: Heat may persist into much of next week

(MORE: Summer Outlook)

What You Should Do

- Heat is the number one weather killer in the U.S., with hundreds of fatalities each year.

- The combination of heat and humidity lingering into the night for several days in a row could be dangerous for those without access to air conditioning, especially in the cores of larger cities.

- Check on family, friends, the elderly and those with chronic illness who live without access to air conditioning.

- If possible, avoid being outdoors for long in the peak heat of the afternoon.

- If not, take frequent breaks, avoid strenuous activity, drink more water than usual and wear loose, lightweight clothing.

(MORE: How To Cool Your Home Without A/C | Heat Advice From An ER Doctor)

heatriskmon.jpg

This map shows the National Weather Service Heat Risk forecast, an experimental index developed with the CDC to quantify potential impacts of excessive heat. The "extreme" level of impact is defined as "rare and/or long-duration extreme heat with little to no overnight relief that affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration."

Why So Hot?

- This heat wave will be triggered by a change in the jet stream pattern.

- Specifically a strong bubble of high pressure aloft known as a heat dome will develop over the eastern U.S.

- Sinking air near the center of this heat dome suppresses clouds, allowing the intense sunshine this time of year to heat the ground and air above it.

- Southerly and southwesterly winds will also tap hot and humid air from the South into the Midwest and Northeast.

Heat wave forecast East Midwest

The pattern triggering the heat wave features a "heat dome" of high pressure over the eastern U.S.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.