Tropical Storm Watches Issued For Leeward Islands

While all eyes are on the newly formed Jerry, a rather unique situation has the potential to form a little closer to home.

What will develop and when?

As most of the Eastern U.S. enjoys warmer temperatures early this week, a cold front will sweep through much of the East Coast by mid-week.

I know it is strange to mention a cold front when talking about an upcoming storm, but this front will lay the groundwork for our storm.

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By the end of the work week, the cold front will stall out near Northern Florida and the Southeast U.S. Coast. While this will bring pleasant fall weather for many of us, the cold front will interact with the still-warm Atlantic Ocean to increase thunderstorm activity.

These thunderstorms will coalesce to form a new low pressure system as early as Friday.

Who can expect impacts and when?

While we do not know the exact track or strength magnitude of the low pressure system, we know that the Mid-Atlantic states will see the most impacts late this week, extending through the weekend.

Coastal regions such as the Outer Banks in North Carolina, Coastal Virginia, and the Delmarva Peninsula should expect strong northeast winds, gusting as high as tropical storm force.

Coastal flooding and beach erosion will be a concern, particularly for the Outer Banks, a region that has already seen nine houses collapsing into the ocean just this year.

(For More: Houses Crumble into Ocean)

Gusty winds and rip currents will also be a concern as far south as Miami and as far north as Boston, starting at the end of the work week, lasting into the weekend.

Heavy rainfall will also be a factor worth watching. However, the position of the low will play a major factor in who sees how much rainfall.

Mid-week, a corridor of half an inch to two inches of rain will be likely from the Tennessee Valley to the Northeast U.S.

As the low pressure develops late in the week, a corridor of at least 1-3 inches of rain will be likely from the east coast of South Florida to Coastal Virginia. The heaviest rainfall will likely be refined to the coast with less rainfall further inland.

If the low pressure system takes a track closer to the coast or inland, regions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast could receive rainfall in excess of 3 inches. If the coastal low tracks further east, portions along the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast may struggle to even see an inch of rainfall.

Where will the storm track after it develops?

As alluded to earlier, the greatest impacts of the storm at a given location, such as heaviest rainfall and strongest winds, will depend on the exact track of the storm as it forms off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Scenario #1: The low pressure system tracks northeast, eventually moving out to sea. This would keep the heaviest rainfall and winds off-shore, reducing the impacts to the Mid-Atlantic while bringing minor impacts to the Southeast and Northeast.

Scenario #2: The low pressure system stalls out over warmer water with a gradual movement towards the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast. This would result in greater impacts for the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, including heavy rainfall, strong winds, and extensive beach erosion.

Will this storm take the name Karen?

The short answer to this question is that time will tell.

Names from the National Hurricane Center are only given to tropical systems and the coastal low expected to develop off the Southeast U.S. and Mid-Atlantic is not tropical in origin.

The coastal low expected to develop this weekend will likely share more in common with winter nor’easters than a tropical storm - this is because the coastal low is expected to develop off of a frontal boundary and not develop due to tropical thunderstorms or monsoonal activity.

However, it is not impossible for the coastal low to develop tropical characteristics. Because the low pressure system is developing over warm water conducive for tropical development, the low pressure system may pick up tropical characteristics, especially if it lingers off the Southeast U.S. Coast, over the Gulf Stream.

If this storm develops tropical characteristics and becomes independent of the frontal boundary leading to its development, it may be dubbed a sub-tropical or tropical storm by the National Hurricane Center - the storm would then be named Karen.

Hayden Marshall is a meteorologist intern and First-Year Master's Student at the Georgia Institute of Technology. He has been following weather content over the past three years as a Storm Spotter and weather enthusiast. He can be found on Instagram and Linkedin.