Potential Southern Snow This Weekend: Reality Or Model Noise?

Could The South, Mid-Atlantic See Snow?

Chatter about a southern snowstorm this weekend is already underway in the world of social media and in our office, but we must use plenty of grains of salt when looking at the forecast.

The short story is that a storm system may bring snow to parts of the South this weekend.

Let's get this out of the way: the forecast. Right now, pretty paltry.

But some models, recently including the GFS and Euro models, have been far more gutsy on the potential of a southern snowstorm on Sunday.

What You Should Know:

- There is at least some chance of some snow somewhere in the South on Sunday

- A storm system is likely to sweep through the Southeast beginning late Saturday and will last until at least Sunday. There is some chance that this storm will not develop

- Regardless of snowfall, cold air is expected across the South. Be prepared to protect your pipes, plants and pets

- This is a very fluid forecast

- You should check back multiple times a day to see how this forecast changes if snowfall could impact your plans, business or safety

Deeper Dive: What's Going On

A disturbance, or even a full-fledged low pressure system, is likely to develop in the northeastern Gulf by late Saturday, then move northeastward along the Southeast coast on Sunday. This will lead to precipitation, rain or otherwise, on Sunday.

Models have very recently (since late Tuesday) latched onto this idea. This may be the beginning of a trend in the forecast toward a more robust storm system. Alternatively, and I hear the groans already, models have been known to completely erase systems like this. We need to keep watching these model trends as the longer they stick around, the more likely a storm is.

As you can see on the graphic below, there is a lot of wiggle room in this forecast between no snow at all to some of the more bonkers solutions like the GFS.

From the coastal Carolinas, it is also somewhat uncertain where this system heads. If it stays closer to the East Coast, there is some potential that snow could spread to the Northeast.

Keep in mind, given the recent development in the computer models, that this storm system may never develop or be on the weaker side (meaning less or no snowfall).

The Ingredients

The one thing we do have that is typically lacking from southern events is plentiful cold air. Frequent rounds of cold air enhance the chance of precipitation falling as anything but rain as the ground stays colder longer.

There will be two surges of cold air that will sweep through the Southeast in the coming days. The first one may even cause some iguana thunder on Friday.

A fresh surge of frigid air will arrive in the South by late Saturday into Sunday.

While this cold air may not penetrate as far south, it will bring overnight temperatures down into the teens, 20s and 30s nearly down to the Gulf Coast. Monday morning will be even chillier than Sunday morning, especially along the Atlantic coast and into Florida.

That all sounds great for snow, but the second ingredient is where this conversation turns into an "if" rather than a "when" type situation.

This second surge of air will also bring a surge of much drier continental air that will be less favorable for precipitation of any kind.

Dew points will generally be in the teens and 20s across much of the South. The lower the number, the drier the air.

Unless heavier snow can develop, this dry air will be the limiting factor for this sort of event that models are occasionally trying to advertise.

Jonathan Belles has been a digital meteorologist for weather.com for 9 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He's a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.