Eastern May Rain Fatigue; Any Break Ahead in June?

Norfolk Closes Floodgates Ahead Of Nor'easter

  

If April showers bring May flowers, some in the rain-fatigued East are wondering what a soaked May will bring.

After a long winter, followed by early-spring rain and late-season snow, some in the Northeast and Midwest tend to get itchy with persistently cloudy, wet weather in May.

"It's hard to believe it's almost summer," said weather.com digital meteorologist Brian Donegan, from central New York.

"I'm just waiting for the days when I can go outside without a long-sleeve shirt or light jacket for more than a few days a time."

It's even had an effect on the baseball season.

According to Major League Baseball, through the May 26 postponement of the Detroit Tigers - Chicago White Sox game, there had been more postponements in less than the first two months of 2017 (26) than all of 2016.

Rather large swaths of the Northeast, Midwest and South have been significantly wetter than average in May.

A number of locations experienced a top-five wettest May on record. Montgomery, Alabama, Savannah, Georgia and Boone, North Carolian just recorded the wettest May. A third wettest May was recorded in Norfolk, Virginia and in Syracuse and Binghamton, New York. Fort Wayne, Indiana saw its second wettest May, while farther south Columbia, South Carolina experienced its fifth wettest. 

Atlantic City, New Jersey, had nine straight days with at least a trace of rain from May 22 through May 30 and saw its second wettest May.

In Bangor, Maine, only two of the first 15 days of the month were completely dry.

While New York City's Central Park did not see a top-10 wettest May, due in part to its very long period of record, all three major airports, JFK, LaGuardia and Newark did, with JFK and LaGuardia coming in seventh and Newark eighth. 

If it wasn't for their first May heat wave in 16 years, namely, three straight days in the 90s from May 17-19, the month may have given no hint that summer was ahead in the Big Apple.

And pity parts of New England, who spent Memorial Day struggling to get out of the upper 40s with a soaking rain.

Why So Wet?

Blocking high-pressure aloft became persistent and pervasive in May near Greenland. In fact, it became so strong it shattered records for May dating to 1948, as measured by an index called the North Atlantic Oscillation. 

Why does this matter?

Blocking highs in the atmosphere can force the jet stream into large north or southward meanders. One such southward plunge, or trough, repeatedly camped out over the eastern half of the U.S. in May.

Associated with each one of these jet-stream plunges is wet weather. At times, it was a deluge of heavy rain with a tropical moisture connection. Other times, it was rounds of showers, dropping just enough rain to dampen an afternoon picnic or hike.

Forecast: June Swoon?

Does the arrival of the first core summer month (at least meteorologically speaking) offer any hope of a drier, sunnier pattern?

(MAPS: 7-Day U.S. Rain Forecast)

The short answer is "not right away."

There will still be upper-level blocking high pressure to the north, which will keep the southward plunge of the jet stream generally over the East the rest of this week into next week, as well.

While this doesn't mean it will rain every day, there may be more wet than dry days into the first full week of June.

(FORECAST: New York | Boston | Washington D.C. | Atlanta | New Orleans | Chicago)

So, if you see a dry day in your forecast and have been itching to get outside and enjoy it, you may want to burn a vacation day, if it's not a normal day off.

(MORE: June Temperature Outlook)

And pray for that stubborn jet stream pattern to stop throwing shade.

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been an incurable weather geek since a tornado narrowly missed his childhood home in Wisconsin at age 7. Follow him on Facebook and Twitter.

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