Climate and Weather

Here's What El Niño's Demise Looks Like In The Pacific Ocean

At a Glance

The decay of El Niño can be seen in an analysis of equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures.
It's expected that the warm waters will continue to become less prominent through spring.
La Niña, which is marked by cooler-than-average water, could appear later this year.

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El Niño’s demise from its strong winter peak is well underway, and we can see this happening using an analysis of sea-surface temperatures.

Warm Pacific Ocean waters are slowly cooling: The side-by-side graphic below shows water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean (white rectangle) compared to average on Jan. 1 versus this past Sunday, March 3.

As you can see, the darkest orange and red shadings that stand out in the Jan. 1 image have decreased in the past couple of months, signifying the decay of El Niño’s warmest waters in this region.

(Reminder: This warmer water near the equator in the Pacific Ocean can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away, as we've seen this past winter in the U.S.)

Darker orange and red shadings indicate the warmest waters compared to average in the analysis of sea-surface temperatures. Blue-shaded areas are cooler than average.
(NOAA)

It’s likely that the warmer-than-average water will continue to become less prominent through spring: In their February monthly update, NOAA stated that "a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing in June-August 2024 (55% chance)."

This means the orange shadings that signify above-average sea-surface temperatures will likely continue to decrease.

(192-hours: Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Simplified version of what a transition to La Niña may look like this year.

La Niña's possible development could turn this strip of ocean water blue in the analysis later this year: If the equatorial Pacific waters continue to cool to a certain threshold, La Niña could be declared in progress sometime this summer or later in the calendar.

Cooler-than-average water, marked by various shadings of blue, would then slowly appear in the equatorial Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperature analysis. We last saw La Niña conditions in winter 2022-23, as the example analysis from January 2023 shows below.

(MORE: Impact The Transition To La Niña Could Have On Weather)

Example showing the last time La Niña's cooler-than-average waters were in place during winter 2022-2023.
(NOAA)

Chris Dolce has been a senior meteorologist with weather.com for over 10 years after beginning his career with The Weather Channel in the early 2000s.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives.

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