The Weak La Niña-Winter Snowfall Connection

Weak La Niña conditions are favored to persist through winter, according to a monthly update released Thursday by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

A La Niña Advisory Is Still In Effect

La Niña occurs when the ocean’s surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific reach a specific cooler-than-average temperature, as shown below.

NOAA said the observed ocean-atmosphere coupling continues to reflect La Niña conditions, as indicated by the strengthening of below-average sea surface temperatures as well as low- and upper-level wind anomalies across the equatorial Pacific ocean.

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Thus, a La Niña Advisory is still in effect, which just means La Niña conditions have been observed over the last month and are expected to continue.

(MORE: What Is La Niña? A Deeper Dive)

La Niña Conditions Expected Through Winter

Model support is strong that La Niña and cooler than average ocean temperatures will continue through the winter.

However, La Niña is expected to remain weak. This means that typical winter effects from La Niña could be less impactful this winter.

NOAA predicts conditions to transition back to an ENSO-neutral state by March 2026, with a 61% chance of neutral conditions.

La Niña Could Affect Winter Weather

La Niña’s cooling effect on the equatorial Pacific waters can affect weather patterns thousands of miles away, including near the U.S., as well as globally. While it isn’t nearly close to the only driver of weather patterns, here are some impacts you typically see during La Niña:

• For the U.S., La Niña usually means a warmer winter in the South and a colder winter in the Northern Plains. It also typically brings a wetter-than-normal winter in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley, and a drier winter for the South. However, with a weaker La Niña this pattern may be less impactful.

• Snowfall amounts could be impacted by a La Niña. A NOAA study found that historically, weaker La Niñas generally produce above-average snowfall across much of the northern tier of the U.S., from the Cascades of the Northwest through the upper Midwest and New England. Whereas below-average snowfall typically occurs in the southern Rockies and parts of the Ohio Valley.

(MORE: Does A Weak La Niña Affect Winter Snow?)

Miriam Guthrie graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with an undergraduate degree in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and is now a meteorology intern with weather.com while working toward her master’s.