Hurricane Dorian is a danger for the southeastern United States over the Labor Day holiday weekend, with possible outcomes ranging from two landfalls – one in Florida followed by another on the northern Gulf Coast – to scraping the southeastern Georgia coast.

Dorian is forecast to become a major hurricane (Category 3 or stronger) by this weekend.

The latest five-day forecast cone from the National Hurricane Center brings the center of Dorian into Florida by late Sunday or early Monday.

Weather in your inbox

Forecast Location

Sign Up

By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.

But what sounds like a straightforward forecast is much more complicated, with the potential for several different outcomes.

(MORE: Latest Complete Forecast | Latest News Impacts)

Here's what we know and don't right now.

A Track Toward the U.S.

By Friday or Saturday, Dorian is expected to hook left.

This is because high pressure, what meteorologists call the Bermuda high, is expected to strengthen between Bermuda and the southeastern U.S. This would steer Dorian toward the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida.

Computer forecast models have consistently suggested this scenario for several days.

But Where in the U.S.?

There are several possible tracks, depending on the strength and shape of the Bermuda high.

1. A stronger, more expansive Bermuda high would force a sooner, sharper left turn. That would force a track more along the left or southern half of the forecast cone, toward the Florida Peninsula. There would be a greater chance of Dorian then emerging into the eastern Gulf of Mexico, potentially making a second landfall along the northern Gulf Coast next week.

2. A weaker, less-expansive Bermuda high would force the storm to make a less-pronounced left turn. That would force a track more along the right or northern half of the forecast cone. This weaker Bermuda high could then allow Dorian to curl northeastward. In this case, the possibilities range from a northeastern Florida landfall to one in southeastern Georgia.

(MORE: Why the Projected Path Doesn't Always Tell the Full Story)

How Strong Will Dorian Become?

Dorian is forecast to intensify after leaving the dry air in the Caribbean Sea and entering the deep, warm ocean water from north of Puerto Rico to the Gulf Stream off the southeastern U.S. coast.

"All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida Peninsula," the National Hurricane Center said in a forecast discussion Wednesday afternoon.

Dorian's small size makes it susceptible to rapid intensification. This could occur when it moves past Puerto Rico and frees itself from dry air. These quick bursts of rapid intensification are difficult to forecast.

How Large Will Dorian Grow?

Dorian has been a small storm with a small wind field, but that probably won't be the case once Dorian nears the U.S.

Dorian's wind field is forecast to expand, possibly significantly, as it intensifies through the weekend.

This is significant because impacts such as storm-surge flooding and high surf depend as much on the size of the hurricane as its wind intensity. Also, a larger wind field would affect a larger area.

There are a lot of uncertainties, and this forecast is likely to change over the next several days.

The National Hurricane Center noted Wednesday that tropical-storm-force winds could arrive much earlier in Florida, possibly as soon as late Saturday, making preparations difficult.

For now, interests near the Gulf and Southeast coasts should check back with weather.com frequently. Now is the time to make sure your hurricane plan is ready to go, not in the hours before a storm strikes.