Rating Hurricanes: The Saffir-Simpson Scale

How much of a blow the Northeast takes from Hurricane Henri will be determined by a complicated weather pattern setting up near the East Coast that will dictate the storm's final track and intensity.

The complicated nature of this setup and its underlying uncertainty means you should prepare for the possibility of the worst-case scenario of a landfalling storm and hope for the possibility of the best-case scenario -- one that stays farther offshore and minimizes wind, surge and flooding damage.

Henri has now turned north-northeast around the western periphery of a mid-level high-pressure system in the north-central Atlantic.

What happens from here is a bit more complicated, with multiple weather features in play over the weekend.

One of those is an upper-level disturbance that will be in place over the East. That disturbance in tandem with the Atlantic high mentioned earlier will help further accelerate Henri in a northerly direction off the East Coast. More favorable upper-level winds could allow Henri to be a hurricane during this time.

By late in the weekend, it's likely that the upper disturbance in the East "captures" Henri for a time and forces it to bend back to the northwest toward the Northeast coast.

The trend of late has been for a more robust northwestward turn near Long Island and through New England.

Finally, a small bubble of high pressure over Quebec could act to slow down Henri's forward progress the farther north it tracks. Where this slowing down occurs could dictate whether Henri has a chance to weaken some over cooler waters as it makes its closest approach to New England.

Exactly how all those steering variables pan out will drive the ultimate final track and intensity for Henri. This will determine what potential impacts from wind, rain and storm surge any one location in the Northeast can expect.

Be sure to check for updates frequently since the future path, timing and intensity of Henri are likely to change over the next couple of days as forecast models come into better agreement.

For additional forecast details, see our main forecast article for Henri at this link.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.