Four Things We're Concerned About With Idalia

Idalia is a serious threat, as it is expected to be a major hurricane when it makes landfall in Florida Wednesday.

Here are four aspects of Idalia that raise our concerns and will need to be monitored closely.

1. I​dalia is expected to rapidly strengthen. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center officially calls for rapid intensification of Idalia during the Tuesday to early Wednesday time period.

R​apid intensification is defined as an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 35 mph in 24 hours. I​dalia is expected to strengthen from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 3 in just 24 hours.

I​t will likely be intensifying up until landfall, which also means that it will likely remain stronger as it moves inland. Strong winds could be felt farther from the coast.

2. C​hanges in Idalia's track are possible. There are still some subtle differences in the path of Idalia among the computer models.

Where exactly the center comes onshore will make a difference in where the worst impacts will be experienced. Winds, storm surge and the threat of tornadoes is typically higher in the right front quadrant of a hurricane. Therefore, even small shifts in the track could make a difference.

S​ometimes, the changes in the projected path come within 48 hours of landfall, which is concerning as that means communities will have less time to prepare.

(​More Information: Four Things To Know About Spaghetti Models)

High tides are usually a bit higher when the moon is full. As a result, storm surge flooding could be increased if it occurs around the time of high tide.

I​n the Big Bend area of Florida, there will be a low tide in the morning and then a high tide around midday. Therefore, the timing of landfall earlier in the morning would lower storm surge, while a midday landfall could increase storm surge levels.

(L​earn More: What Is Storm Surge?)

4. I​dalia's size means impacts will be experienced outside the cone. A hurricane or tropical storm is not just a point on the map but is often a sprawling system. The projected path covers the most likely area that the center of a tropical cyclone will track.

I​t is important to be prepared for a storm even if you are not in the cone. The cone is drawn so that about two-thirds of the time, the center of the storm will remain in the cone. That means there are times when the center tracks outside of the projected path.

In addition, r​ain bands often extend a couple hundred miles from the center and the threat of tornadoes can occur well ahead of the center.

W​inds are the strongest closest to the center but areas outside of the cone often experience strong tropical-storm-force winds.

(D​eeper Look: Facts And Myths About The Cone Of Uncertainty)​

Linda Lam is a senior meteorologist at weather.com. Growing up in Massachusetts she developed a fascination for winter storms and hurricanes that led her to pursue a career in meteorology.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.