Threats From Ernesto Impacting US Coastal Areas

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Hurricane Idalia is rapidly intensifying over the Gulf of Mexico, headed for a Florida Gulf Coast landfall Wednesday with catastrophic, life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds and flooding rain.

Parts of south Georgia and the Carolinas will also see significant impacts from Idalia, including damaging winds, flooding rain and tornadoes.

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(​MORE: Interactive Storm Tracker)

Here's where Idalia is now and where it's headed next: The center of the hurricane is over the Gulf of Mexico south of Tallahassee. Maximum sustained winds have increased by 35 mph over the past 24 hours, meeting the rapid intensification threshold.

Outer bands of rain containing gusty winds continue to swing into much of Florida, and parts of south Georgia. Several locations in south and southwest Florida have clocked wind gusts over 40 mph, and a few locations have topped 50 mph gusts in those rainbands.

W​ater levels were about 1 to 2 feet above normal from Naples to Fort Myers and the Tampa Bay area with the Tuesday midday high tide. Some low-lying areas have seen inundation from this coastal flooding.

Plenty of warm water and favorable upper-level winds has made this rapid intensification possible. The National Hurricane Center now says Idalia may make landfall at Category 4 intensity Wednesday, a first for Florida's Big Bend region, if that were to happen.

A​fter it makes landfall, Idalia will make a northeast curl over south Georgia and the coastal Carolinas through Thursday while eventually weakening to a tropical storm.

(​MORE: 12 Things You May Not Know About Hurricane Forecasts)

Major impacts from Idalia will extend outside the forecast path shown below.

Hurricane and tropical storm alerts: A hurricane warning is in effect for the areas shaded in purple in the map below. That includes Gainesville, Tallahassee, Florida, and parts of southern Georgia. A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions (74+ mph winds) are expected somewhere in this area within 24 hours.

Hurricane watches, t​ropical storm watches and tropical storm warnings have been issued for many other parts of Florida into south Georgia and the Carolinas, as shown in the map below.

Storm surge is a major danger in Florida: The National Hurricane Center issued this strong wording in its forecast discussion Tuesday afternoon, "Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 12 to 16 feet above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere between Wakulla-Jefferson County line and Yankeetown, Florida."

T​he National Weather Service in Tallahassee noted in their Tuesday morning discussion, "Widespread deep inundation with storm surge flooding will be greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Locations may be uninhabitable for an extended period of time. Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads may be washed out or severely flooded."

A storm surge warning is in effect for Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. This means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the shoreline within the specified area.

S​torm surge watches and warnings are in effect for other parts of the Florida coast to southeast Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina.

Here are some water levels that could reach 6 feet or higher if the peak surge coincides with high tide. Other peak storm surge forecasts along the coast are shown in the map below:

-​Wakulla-Jefferson County line, Florida, to Yankeetown, Florida: 12-16 feet

-​Ochlockonee River, Florida, to Wakulla-Jefferson County line, Florida: 8-12 feet

-​Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, Florida: 7-11 feet

-​Chassahowitzka, Florida, to Anclote River, Florida: 6-9 feet

-​Carrabelle, Florida, to Ochlockonee, Florida: 5-8 feet

-​Anclote River, Florida, to middle of Longboat Key, Florida: 4-6 feet

-​Tampa Bay: 4-6 feet

Flooding rain is expected in Florida and the Southeast: H​eavy rain will continue into Thursday from Florida into parts of Alabama, Georgia and the Carolinas. That will likely trigger local flash flooding in some areas.

Parts of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle, southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas may receive 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with isolated higher amounts of 12 inches possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida, a​ccording to the National Hurricane Center.

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Damaging winds will reach far from the center: Locations where hurricane warnings are in effect could have numerous power outages and downed trees. Those more numerous outages may extend far inland from northern Florida into southern Georgia.

Elsewhere, at least scattered power outages and some tree damage can be expected from other parts of Florida to the coastal Carolinas.

Hurricane force winds are expected to begin early Wednesday morning in hurricane warned areas of Florida.

T​hese hurricane force winds may extend into southern Georgia and parts of coastal South Carolina Wednesday and Wednesday night, due to how fast the hurricane is moving and its intensity at landfall.

Otherwise, t​ropical storm conditions are expected to begin Wednesday in the warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area in North and South Carolina by Thursday.

T​ornadoes are also a threat midweek. A few tornadoes may develop in rainbands ahead of Idalia along the west-central Florida coast and will spread into the Big Bend area into Wednesday morning.

T​he threat for a few tornadoes may persist across parts of northern Florida Wednesday morning and will spread along the Southeast coast later Wednesday.

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