Hurricane Season Peak Time Begins In August

We've arrived at the peak months of Atlantic hurricane season, and that typically means a sharp increase not only in storms, but also in the risk of U.S. landfalls.

V​isualizing the peak: Hurricane season runs from June through November, but in most years, the first two months of the season are typically the calmest. June averages only one storm every other year, and July has averaged one storm per year, according to NOAA statistics.

T​his year, however, broke that general rule with early-season, record shattering, Category 5 Hurricane Beryl as well as two other tropical storms, Alberto and Chris.

August, September and October are the peak months when it comes to the most tropical storms and hurricanes. You can see this highlighted in the graph below.

A​ccording to NOAA, 78% of storms, 84% of hurricanes and 93% of U.S. landfalling hurricanes happen from August through October.

(Further beef up your forecast with our detailed, hour-by-hour breakdown for the next 8 days – only available on our Premium Pro experience.)

Recent peak months: This three-month period is also when some of the most powerful and destructive hurricanes occur. These hurricanes in the past several years all struck the U.S. during the peak of the season:

• 2​023: Idalia (Florida's Big Bend)

• 2​022: Fiona (Puerto Rico, then Atlantic Canada); Ian (Florida)

• 2021: Ida (Louisiana); Nicholas (Texas)

• 2020: Isaias (North Carolina); Laura (Louisiana); Sally (Florida/Alabama border); Delta (Louisiana)

P​eak months in most active years: Given outlooks suggesting 2024 could be one of the busiest hurricane seasons, we took a deeper look into what past hyperactive seasons have generated in their peak months.

S​pecifically, we examined the 10 most active hurricane seasons in the satellite era (since 1966) as ranked by a metric known as the ACE index. That's an index that not only counts storms, but also how long they last.

A​s the graph below shows, August through October usually generates an impressive number of both storms and hurricanes.

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F​rom quiet to hyperactive: This ramping of hurricane season can happen quickly. Two of those most active hurricane seasons started out very quiet.

2004 was infamous for Florida's big four hurricanes - Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne. But all that season's activity waited until Alex became a tropical storm on August 1.

In 1969, only Tropical Storm Anna formed before August. But that was followed by an onslaught of 17 storms, 12 of which became hurricanes from August on, including Hurricane Camille's catastrophic Category 5 landfall in Mississippi.

W​hy this peak? Several factors contribute to the seasonal ramp-up that begins in August.

• African easterly waves are most developed, often serving as a seed for tropical storms and hurricanes to form.
• Surges of dry, Saharan air into the central and eastern Atlantic Basin that normally squelch tropical development in those areas tend to give way by August as the parade of African easterly waves gradually add moisture. This opens up more favorable real estate for tropical cyclone development.
• Wind shear – the change in wind speed and/or direction with height, which can rip apart a tropical cyclone wannabe – tends to be low.
• Sea-surface temperatures rise toward a peak in early fall, providing more potential energy for a tropical cyclone.
• Instability – the atmosphere's ability to generate convection (thunderstorms) to develop tropical cyclones – also rises toward an early fall peak.

All of those factors make for a larger area in the Atlantic where tropical storms and hurricanes can develop, compared to June and July.

Key points: Averages are no guarantee of how a hurricane season will turn out.

B​ut in a season expected to be very active like 2024, it signals there is potential danger lying ahead.

M​ake sure you have your hurricane plan ready to go.

If you have travel plans to the Gulf Coast, East Coast or Caribbean during hurricane season, buy travel insurance.

Pay attention to the forecast every day through the rest of the season. Hurricane season can quickly switch from quiet to active.