Wildfire Safety and Preparedness

The Science Behind Smokey's Fire Danger Signs

Smokey’s Sign Is All About Science

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Smokey Bear stands guard in national forests and at other sites around the country, alerting people to the potential for wildfires.

His iconic signs list five levels of fire risk, and a lot of science goes on behind the scenes to make sure they’re updated daily.

It starts with the fire triangle - heat, fuel and oxygen.

Heat is an ignition source and fuel is anything that can burn, especially dry vegetation. Oxygen is stirred by wind, which can also fuel the spread of flames.

“So if you don't know what your weather is, you're really opening yourself up to a lot of risk once you start that fire,” Brook Smith, an area forester with the Tennessee Division of Forestry told us in a recent interview.

Smith and other experts met with us in Tennessee in honor of Smokey Bear’s 80th birthday.

What To Know About Smokey’s Fire Danger Ratings

A sign with Smokey the Bear warns of a very high fire danger for the day as smoke rises from the Trout Fire burning in the Domeland Wilderness of Sequoia National Forest, near Inyokern, California, July 19, 2024. The fire has burned approximately 6,000 acres (2,428 hectares) and is at 0% containment, according to Cal Fire. (Photo by David SWANSON / AFP) (Photo by DAVID SWANSON/AFP via Getty Images) — A sign with Smokey Bear warns of a very high fire danger for the day as smoke rises from the Trout Fire burning in the Domeland Wilderness of Sequoia National Forest, near Inyokern, California, July 19, 2024.
(DAVID SWANSON/AFP via Getty Images)

Smokey’s daily fire danger levels range from low to extreme.

High, very high and extreme mean fires can quickly become dangerous and out of control.

“Weather conditions such as high temperatures, high winds, low humidities, all are contributing factors that can lead to higher than normal fire activity,” said James Heaton, with the USDA Forest Service.

Local forestry service staff maintain the Smokey signs. Data from a variety of sources including the National Weather Service and local weather stations are among the tools that can be used to assess the risk.

The Risk Levels Aren’t Just For Campers

Wildfire risk levels also help inform staffing, mitigation measures and other daily activities of those involved in forestry, firefighting and land management.

They can also help you be more aware of your surroundings and cognizant of fire safety issues, whether at your backyard fire pit or out in nature.

“We can all feel the need to protect our forest resources, to protect the homes of our wildlife partners, and the values the forest represents,” Smith said.

MORE ON WEATHER.COM

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-How To Keep Your Campfire From Becoming A Wildfire

Weather.com reporter Jan Childs covers breaking news and features related to weather, space, climate change, the environment and everything in between.