World's First Chief Heat Officer's Tips

A New Year's storm may trigger more severe thunderstorms and tornadoes in parts of the South and spread a wintry mess of snow and ice from the Rockies and Plains to parts of the Midwest and Northeast.

Rounds of snow will blanket parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Northeast, along with soaking rain and thunderstorms in parts of the South the first half of this week.

But a potentially more volatile setup may come into play around the New Year's holiday weekend.

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First up, record warmth for this time of year will be in place over much of the South this week. An energetic U-shaped jet stream trough will swing over that warm, humid air, providing the wind shear and instability needed for severe thunderstorms.

And moisture flowing over colder air on the storm's northern flank will wring out snow and some ice.

Given the storm is a few days away, there are still many important details that haven't come into focus just yet. Check back frequently for important forecast updates in the days ahead.

For now, here's the general picture of this active New Year's holiday.

Severe Weather Outlook

Rain and thunderstorms will increase Friday night from parts of Texas to the Ohio Valley.

There is the possibility that severe thunderstorms could initially fire up late Friday night into the early morning hours of Saturday from the ArkLaTex region into much of Arkansas, far western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. Those storms could produce damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

By Saturday (New Year's Day), a more substantial severe weather threat might develop from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys to the southern Appalachians. This threat may last into Saturday night in some of these areas.

For now, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has highlighted the locations below from northern Louisiana and southern and eastern Arkansas to Tennessee, Mississippi, southern Kentucky, northern and central Alabama and north Georgia as the area with the highest chance of at least some severe thunderstorms Saturday and Saturday night.

Damaging thunderstorm winds, hail and tornadoes are possible in these areas.

Some severe thunderstorms might continue in parts of the Southeast Sunday, but computer forecast models are not yet in sync with the magnitude and location of this possibility.

There is also a threat of heavy rain and at least local flash flooding from the Tennessee Valley into the Appalachians, especially if this system moves slower Sunday, as a few computer models have suggested the past few days.

As we saw twice earlier in December, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes can occur any time of year when the ingredients line up.

If you're in the severe weather threat areas, have multiple ways of receiving National Weather Service severe thunderstorm, tornado and flash flood watches and warnings. This includes smartphone apps, such as The Weather Channel app, and NOAA weather radio. Know where to go if a tornado warning is issued for your area, whether that's the basement of your home or a more substantial storm shelter if you live in a mobile home.

Snow, Ice Outlook

By Friday night, snow and possibly some sleet and freezing rain is expected to spread from the Rockies into parts of the central Plains and possibly as far east as the upper Mississippi valley and Great Lakes.

Saturday (New Year's Day), snow, possibly heavy in spots, may extend from the Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes. A wintry mess of snow, sleet and ice might also spread from parts of upstate New York into western and northern New England.

The forecast beyond that is even trickier.

Sunday, some snow may linger in parts of northern New England and upstate New York. Whether – and how much – rain changes to wet snow from the lower Mississippi and Tennessee valleys to the Appalachians Sunday and Sunday night remains uncertain.

Right now, areas from the central and southern Rockies to the central Plains, upper Mississippi valley, Great Lakes and northern New England have the greatest chance of at least some accumulating snow from this storm. It's too early to pinpoint exact snow totals for these areas.

So prepare for wintry travel over the New Year's holiday weekend.

Keep in mind temperatures will plunge sharply this weekend behind the system's cold front. That may lead to freezing or refreezing of roads that may have been either only wet or slushy during the day.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.