Could This Large Asteroid Hit Earth In 2032?

Sign up for the Morning Brief email newsletter to get weekday updates from The Weather Channel and our meteorologists.

It's like something out of a movie script. A planetary defense response is underway after an asteroid discovered at the end of 2024 was found to have a small chance of colliding with earth in the coming years.

Asteroid ​2024 YR4 has a 98.7% chance of passing right by Earth in 2032, but that leaves a 1.3% chance that it could smack right into us. That’s a 1-in-83 chance, New Scientist reports.

Weather in your inbox

Forecast Location

Sign Up

By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.

It rates a 3 on the Torino Hazard Impact Scale, and only one other asteroid has been rated higher since the scale’s inception in 1999. That was Apophis in 2004, which was initially rated a 4, but was later downgraded after further observation.

(​MORE: Asteroid Holds The Key Building Blocks To Life)

The asteroid now sits at the top of the European Space Agency’s asteroid risk list.

2024 YR4 is about the size of a building, which would inflict localized destruction if it did strike Earth.

Two UN-endorsed global asteroid response groups have been activated since the asteroid’s discovery. The International Asteroid Warning Network is working to more accurately determine the asteroid’s orbit and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group is working on a plan to intervene with the asteroid if necessary. This plan could involve intervention via spacecraft to deflect the asteroid off course, according to The Guardian.

According to the European Space Agency, it’s common for an asteroid’s impact probability to rise before quickly being assessed as zero after additional observations.

“Most likely this one will pass by harmlessly,” Colin Snodgrass, professor of planetary astronomy at the University of Edinburgh, told The Guardian. “It just deserves a little more attention with telescopes until we can confirm that. The longer we follow its orbit, the more accurate our future predictions of its trajectory become.”