Soviet Spacecraft Re-entry: There's Just One Problem | Weather.com
The Weather Channel

Space

Here's when you'll want to keep an eye out for this one.

Sean Breslin

By

Sean Breslin

May 11, 2025

ap25120787655074.jpg

This photo provided by researcher Jane Greaves shows the planet Venus, seen from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Akatsuki probe in May 2016.

(J. Greaves/Cardiff University/JAXA via AP)

We're less than a week from a former Soviet Union spacecraft re-entering Earth's atmosphere, but there's a problem: nobody knows where it's going to land – and it looks like it's going to land, rather than burning up in the atmosphere.

Known as Kosmos 482, it's part of a Venus lander that was sent into orbit in 1972 and has been stuck there ever since. The spacecraft's mission to Venus failed, unlike the sister mission, Venera 8, which successfully had a Venus landing in July 1972, according to the Washington Post.

(MORE: Watch For These Big Celestial Events In May)

Weather in your inbox
By signing up you agree to the Terms & Privacy Policy. Unsubscribe at any time.

What To Know:

- Where could it land? At this point, it's believed that a crash-landing is likely and could happen anywhere between 52 degrees north and south of the equator, experts told the Post. That's pretty much anywhere from Quebec to Patagonia, the Post added.

- When might the re-entry occur? Marco Langbroek of SatTrackCam Leiden in the Netherlands, who first discovered that the satellite was falling back to Earth, used orbital data to calculate that the likeliest time for re-entry is early-morning May 10 Eastern Time. However, it could fall back to Earth any time between May 9 and 11, based on his current projections.

- How large is the spacecraft? Kosmos 482 weighs about 1,100 pounds, according to NASA, and it's nearly the size of a small car. If it remains intact and makes contact with the Earth's surface, it could create an impact similar to that of a small asteroid.

What They're Saying:

- "It should be visible as a bright fireball when it reenters the atmosphere." -David Williams, head of NASA’s Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, told the Washington Post

- "As this is a lander that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere, it is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact. The risks involved are not particularly high, but not zero." -Langbroek, speaking with Live Science

- "The vehicle is dense but inert and has no nuclear materials. No need for major concern, but you wouldn't want it bashing you on the head." -Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist at the Harvard and Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, in an April blog post

- "Following its failed launch, Kosmos 482 broke into two pieces consisting of the main body and the lander. The former re-entered Earth's atmosphere nine years after launch on May 5, 1981, while the descent craft remained trapped inside a slowly decaying orbit that has persisted for more than 50 years." -Space.com