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How Much Snow, Cold Is To Come After Groundhog Day | Weather.com
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Here's How Much Snow And Cold Is Typically Left After Groundhog Day

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At a Glance

  • In most years, there is still plenty of winter weather left after Groundhog Day.
  • Most cities where snow is typical will see at least a third of their average snowfall after Feb. 2.
  • Freezing temperatures can happen well into April, if not May, in the northern half of the country.

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G​roundhog Day marks the midpoint of astronomical winter, which for some is a turning point that spring is inching closer. But for many cities, there's usually plenty more snow and cold to come, no matter what verdict Punxsutawney Phil reaches each year.

The following map gives a general overview of how much snow, on average, is still to come after Groundhog Day: Compiled by the Midwest Regional Climate Center and based on NOAA's 30-year average data, it paints a still-snowy picture for many in the northern and western United States.

However, we dug even deeper into the data to lay out the specifics below on how much snow and cold is left for several cities across the U.S., according to 30-year data from the National Weather Service.

Average snowfall each season from Feb. 3 to May 31, based on 1991-2020 data.
(Midwest Regional Climate Center)

About 25% to 55% of the average season's snow falls after Groundhog Day in the Northeast, Midwest, West and Alaska: Seventeen of the 25 cities we examined still picked up another foot or more of snowfall after Feb. 2, including Chicago, Detroit, New York City, Pittsburgh and Salt Lake City.

Average snowfall, percent of the entire season's total, and date of last measurable snow (at least 0.1 inches), according to 1991-2020 data.
(Data: NOAA/NWS)

Some cities average another 2 or more feet of snow after Groundhog Day: Anchorage, Billings, Buffalo and Cleveland are some of the cities in this club that usually have plenty more shoveling to come.

Incredibly, in both Marquette, Michigan, and Tahoe City, in California's Sierra Nevada, another 82 to 90 inches of snow is typical after Feb. 2.

Average snowfall, percent of the entire season's total, and date of last measurable snow (at least 0.1 inches), according to 1991-2020 data.
(Data: NOAA/NWS)

Four of the seven cities with the highest percentage of season snowfall after Groundhog Day are along the Northeast Interstate 95 corridor: Boston, New York City, and Philadelphia, each typically pick up about half of their season's snow after Feb. 2.

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This is in large part due to the propensity for major Northeast snowstorms in February and March. Last winter, however, didn't deliver such a storm, so it's not a guarantee.

(​MORE: Could El Niño Help Deliver A Strong Northeast Winter Storm In February?)

Even if the snow finally shuts off for the season in spring, cold snaps can still be frustrating: Only four of the cities we examined typically see their last freeze of the season in March.

Otherwise, most cities outside the Mountain West or not near the U.S.-Canadian border have to go into April to see their last freeze.

Average number of days with a low temperature of 32 degrees or colder, and the date of last freeze, according to 1991-2020 data.
(Data: NOAA/NWS)

This translates to about four weeks' worth of days after Groundhog Day of morning lows at least dipping to the freezing mark in New York, Philadelphia and St. Louis, at least 45 such freezing mornings in Chicago and Pittsburgh, 50 such days in Detroit and Spokane, and at least 60 freezing mornings after Feb. 2 in Denver, Fargo, and Flagstaff.

In some parts of the far northern U.S. or Mountain West, a freeze is possible much of the spring.

Average number of days with a low temperature of 32 degrees or colder, and the date of last freeze, according to 1991-2020 data.
(Data: NOAA/NWS)

So, even a pessimistic "six more weeks of winter" forecast from your local groundhog doesn't typically capture the propensity for winter weather to lag into spring.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives.

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