Ask A Met: Can You Predict Snow For The Ski Season?

This week’s question comes from Morning Brief reader Aaron, who is thinking of taking a winter trip. He asks, “Can you predict how much snow will fall in a ski season?”

Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman: So, the short answer is yes, you can.

The nuance behind that answer is, well, how accurate is it?

We have several long range forecasters out there that will try that type of thing for a local area’s forecast. Some local meteorologists will try to say, for example, “We're forecasting 25 inches of snow in Washington D.C. this winter.”

I'm trying to parse my words very carefully here. The reason being is that, first of all, seasonal forecasts are very difficult. Even getting the areas that are generally colder than average and warmer than average broad brushed on a map throughout the entire winter season, that can be challenging in and of itself.

Now imagine you're going to a specific location and saying exactly how much snow will fall in a winter season. That's darn near impossible.

This winter, we're in a weak La Nina now and that's expected to last at least through the winter months. Usually, that means the northern tier of states, generally speaking, especially the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Northern Plains,and parts of the upper Midwest tend to be snowier than usual.

The problem is that's not the only factor. That's a lot like saying the economy is just based on one factor when we know it's not. Just as there are many different factors that go into the economy, there are many different factors that go into a winter forecast, including how strong the polar vortex is gonna be.

Are we going to get a weakness in the polar vortex? Is it gonna break down for a while and then lead to a period of colder, snowier conditions? And that's hard to predict even a month out, much less 3 or 4 or 5 months out. There are other factors in place, too.

So, we can get a broad brush feel of who may have a better chance of a snowier winter, as opposed to a less snowy winter by looking at, say, La Nina and El Nino. On the other hand, it's really hard to get down to within the inch or even 6 inches of snow that a specific ski resort will have. That's just very, very difficult to do.

I wouldn't worry so much if I was going up to Stow, Vermont or Boyne Mountain, Michigan, or, you know, if I was going up to the Cascades of Washington State, I really wouldn't worry too much year to year. They're, they're probably gonna get whooped, most years, or at least have enough snow on the ground where I wouldn't have to worry about it just being completely machine made.

But if I'm planning a trip farther south, if I wanna go to the resorts in New Mexico or Arizona or even the Southern Appalachians, I would be interested in an outlook. If someone said, well, we've got a better chance of a snowier than average winter. That would boost my confidence in booking a trip there that season.