Where And Why There Can Be A Secondary Peak In The Tornado Threat Late In The Year

Where Tornadoes Peak Again In November

Damaging tornadoes can strike the U.S. any time of the year, but there’s a secondary peak season for severe weather - and tornadoes - focused on the Gulf Coast and Deep South late in the year.

That might sound surprising. Fall usually conjures up visions of the first cold fronts of the season sweeping away summer's heat and humidity. Crisp, cool fall mornings don't seem to mesh with thoughts of severe thunderstorms.

Just like spring, the months when fall seeps into early winter are a battleground season when surges of warm, humid air from the Gulf can clash with the increasingly stronger cold fronts and jet stream winds that typically sweep across the country this time of year.

When this mix of ingredients comes together, it can spin up organized severe thunderstorms that produce damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes.

Although spring produces much higher numbers of tornadoes, fall can also have larger outbreaks.

The biggest second-season tornado outbreak struck Nov. 21-23, 1992. A total of 105 twisters touched down in parts of 13 states from Texas to the Carolinas and killed 26 people and injured 638.

A tropical caveat: The clash of air masses isn't the only potential driver of late-year tornadoes. Hurricanes can also create tornado outbreaks as they drag across the country. In 2024, Hurricane Milton set a Florida state record for most tornadoes of any modern-era outbreak, with 46 tornadoes in Florida from just before midnight on Oct. 8 through Oct. 9.

(MORE: 2024 Had The Second Most US Tornadoes On Record)

November’s Tornado Risk Areas

Parts of the South, especially the lower-Mississippi valley, have the greatest risk. But, the possibility of tornadoes can extend farther north into the mid-Mississippi Valley, lower Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic states.

November 2022 was a reminder with an above average 68 tornadoes in the month, most of which were in the South. Deadly tornadoes struck Texas and Oklahoma on Nov. 4, and then Alabama early on Nov. 30.

One of the nation's worst tornado outbreaks happened just days before Thanksgiving 1992 when a swarm of 105 tornadoes tore through parts of 13 states from Texas to the Carolinas. The severe weather claimed 26 lives and injured another 638.

There were also a pair November tornado outbreaks in the Midwest in recent years. One of those, in early November 2002 in the Ohio Valley, spawned an F4 tornado in Van Wert, Ohio. Another in mid-November 2013 produced EF4 tornadoes in Washington and near New Minden, Illinois.

Wintertime tornadoes are a concern too, especially in the South: Arctic cold fronts usually surge through the U.S. in winter, cutting off any chance of thunderstorms – much less severe thunderstorms – in the Lower 48.

The December 9, 2023 outbreak in the Tennessee Valley claimed seven lives as destructive tornadoes tore through the north Nashville metro area and near Clarksville, Tennessee.

December 2024 is the most recent extreme example with a significant outbreak of tornadoes just after Christmas. The National Weather Service confirmed 105 tornadoes between Dec. 26 to 29, 91 of which happened from Dec. 28 through the AM of Dec. 29. These storms stretched from Texas to the Carolinas.

(MORE: Hurricane Milton Spawned Record Number Of Florida Tornadoes)

An Additional, Nocturnal Threat

Nighttime tornadoes also have a greater chance of spinning up as we head deeper into fall.

As you can see in the graph below, there is a distinct nighttime tornado peak in the month of November.

Given the fewer hours of daylight in standard, rather than daylight time, any cold-season southern tornadoes have a greater chance of occurring after sunset.

This is important since tornadoes occurring at night are more than twice as likely to be deadly as those during the day, according to a recent study.

How can you be warned if you're sound asleep? Here are some tips:

-Buy a NOAA weather radio. You can find these at most electronics retailers. They feature warning alarms that can be set to sound when any National Weather Service tornado or severe thunderstorm watch or warning is issued.

-Your smartphone can alert you. Most newer smartphones are capable of receiving wireless emergency alerts from your local NWS office. These include tornado warnings. Make sure your smartphone is charged sufficiently and left on overnight, and a special tone and vibration will occur twice when a tornado warning is issued. Note, however, this will not sound for a tornado watch or severe thunderstorm warning.

-Other weather apps can also alert you. Many weather apps, including The Weather Channel app, can also send alerts to your smartphone, tablet or smartwatch.

-Know where to go. Have a plan in place in advance for where you will seek shelter.