Kentucky Derby Weather Forecast: Rain During The Week, Dry By Race Day Saturday

The Kentucky Derby weather forecast looks good for the first leg of horse racing's Triple Crown Saturday, but rain could pose issues for other festivities this week, including the Kentucky Oaks race Friday.

Churchill Downs in Louisville hosts a string of events this week, including Tuesday's "502'sDay", Winsday on Wednesday, Thurby on Thursday and the Kentucky Oaks race on Friday, all leading up to the 151st running of the big race around 6:57 p.m. ET.

Rain Chances This Week

Unfortunately, showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast much of this week in Louisville. Here is our look at the forecast through Friday:

- Tuesday: Scattered t-storms are possible in the afternoon. Some of those storms could be severe with strong winds and hail.

- Wednesday: There could be both morning showers, then another round of afternoon showers and storms.

- Thursday: There's another good bet for showers and thunderstorms.

- Friday: Occasional rain showers may linger during the day.

A Drier Derby?

Fortunately by Saturday afternoon, we expect any showers to have pushed east of Louisville.

That should provide at least several hours of drying of the track before post time early Saturday evening. But given the past few days of rain, we certainly don't expect a fast track Saturday, as has been in place the last five races in a row.

The last track deemed "sloppy" due to rain was in 2019, when about a third of an inch of rain fell. The previous year, over 3 inches of rain fell on May 5, 2018.

Behind the cold front, we also expect seasonably cool temperatures Saturday, with highs generally holding in the 60s.

(MORE: How Weather Can Affect Horses At The Kentucky Derby)

Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.