Five-Day Hurricane Track Forecasts Are More Accurate Today Than Two-Day Forecasts 25 Years Ago

Hurricane track forecasts are now more accurate five days in advance than similar two-day forecasts were in 1992 – the year Andrew struck South Florida 25 years ago.

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This is "one of the greatest weather forecast success stories out there," according to Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center.

Note in the representation above that the hypothetical five-day forecast is inside the two-day forecast from 25 years ago.

This shows what the cone of uncertainty, which encapsulates roughly 67 percent of average hurricane track error over a five-year period, would have looked like in 2017 and in the 1990s.

This incredible feat of science shows the hard work and long hours that have gone into advancing meteorology.

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As noted by Blake, no one computer model has outdone the others, but the overall improvement in computer modeling has helped lead to improvements in both track and intensity modeling.

The pace at which scientists are improving track forecasts likely won't slow much in the upcoming hurricane seasons due to increasingly better science.

Early indications are that even intensity forecasts are slightly better than the previous seven years in this decade.

Hurricane intensity continues to be the biggest struggle in tropical forecasting due to the small-scale features in a hurricane that lead to intensification. These subtleties are particularly difficult to predict before rapid changes in strength.

Note on the graphic: We bent the rules of how cones of uncertainty are built for the purpose of this article. Only preliminary errors in 2017 are currently shown with the green ring, and there is still some wiggle room in that ring until postseason analysis is completed. The average errors for an entire decade are given for the 1990s rather than just five years.