Tropical Depression Likely to Develop in Gulf of Mexico by Monday and Spread Heavy Rain Toward Gulf Coast

This article is no longer being updated. Please follow updates on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven by clicking this link.

A tropical depression or tropical storm is likely to develop in the Gulf of Mexico by Monday and will track toward the northern Gulf Coast, where heavy rain, gusty winds and rough surf will be potential impacts.

The area of disturbed weather is currently located in the Bahamas, where it is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms.

This system has been designated Invest 91L by the National Hurricane Center, which is a naming convention used to identify systems that have a chance to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

Invest 91L has a high chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next day or so, the NHC said, adding that a tropical storm watch could be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast Sunday night.

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Monday.

(MORE: Hurricane Central)

If it eventually intensified into a tropical storm (39-plus-mph winds), it would be given the name Gordon.

Upper-level winds are becoming more favorable for development in the environment where Invest 91L is located, and the system's thunderstorm activity is becoming better organized.

Steered by high pressure aloft parked over the eastern United States, this system will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later Monday into Tuesday.

A factor favoring development is the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, with sea-surface temperatures running above average and ample heat content.

Regardless of how well organized Invest 91L becomes, there will still be impacts on the northern Gulf Coast.

Northern Gulf Coast Impacts

Portions of the northern Gulf Coast are already experiencing stormy conditions for the Labor Day weekend. The combination of a pipeline of tropical moisture and another weather disturbance will bring locally heavy rain and possible flash flooding from the upper Texas coast into southern Louisiana through Monday.

Additional stormy weather is likely along the northern Gulf Coast as the potential future tropical depression or tropical storm approaches by midweek.

Here's a general look at what to expect. Keep in mind this forecast is still uncertain, so the severity and location of impacts could change.

• Peak Timing for Impacts: Later Tuesday through Wednesday.
• Locations Affected: Southern Louisiana to southern Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
• Rainfall: Parts of the northern Gulf Coast could see 3 inches or more of rainfall through Wednesday. Additional rain is possible depending on how long this system lingers. As a result, there could be flooding in this region, including the New Orleans and Mobile, Alabama, metro areas.
• Winds: Gusty winds are expected to accompany the bands of rain as this system moves inland.
• Rip Currents: An onshore wind flow will continue a risk of dangerous rip currents on the northern Gulf Coast into midweek, and swimmers are encouraged to stay out of the water.
• High Surf: Seas are expected to build to 6 to 10 feet by Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service in Mobile, Alabama.
• Coastal Flooding: The onshore flow and above-normal tides may cause some coastal flooding later Monday through Wednesday.

Check back with weather.com for the latest as we track the potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico this week.