Where the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Stands

Following the latest two-week siege of tropical storms and hurricanes, the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is off to a frenetic start, and there's still a large majority of the season left ahead.

Let's lay out the status of the season so far and what may lie ahead.

Five in July

You'll have to forgive meteorologists if they thought September had come two months early.

Five named storms – and Tropical Depression Ten – formed in the Atlantic Basin in July, beginning with Tropical Storm Edouard over the Fourth of July weekend and ending with a raking of the East Coast by Isaias.

The record-breaking 2005 season was the only other time five storms formed in July dating to 1950.

On average, only one named storm forms each July in what is typically a quiet month of the season.

Record Named Storm Pace So Far

When Tropical Storm Isaias was first christened south of Puerto Rico on July 29, it was the record-earliest ninth Atlantic named storm, leapfrogging 2005's Irene by nine days.

According to the National Hurricane Center, the "I" storm usually doesn't arrive until Oct. 4.

Last year, Tropical Storm Imelda, which gave an epic soaking to the upper Texas coast, didn't earn its name until Sept. 17.

And two hurricane season outlooks issued this week suggest we could run out of hurricane names for only the second time, requiring the use of the Greek alphabet for storm names if we have another named system after Wilfred.

Most Landfalls to-Date

Five of those named storms have made landfall in the mainland U.S., a record number through Aug. 4, as pointed out by Aon meteorologist Steve Bowen.

Three of the five landfalls occurred on the East Coast.

Two of the landfalls were hurricanes – Hanna and Isaias – landfalling just over a week apart.

The U.S. averages one to two hurricane landfalls each season, according to NOAA's Hurricane Research Division.

A map tweeted by the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi, Texas, shows the entire East Coast and sizable parts of the Gulf Coast have been covered by tropical watches or warnings already this season.

'ACE' of Activity

Another way to look at how active a season has been is through a metric called the ACE index.

Short for Accumulated Cyclone Energy, this index takes into account not just the number, but also the intensity and longevity of storms and hurricanes.

Not surprisingly, 2020's ACE index through early August is well above average, about three weeks ahead of the average pace, according to data compiled by Colorado State University tropical scientist Phil Klotzbach.

Bowen pointed out it's ahead of the pace of most seasons but behind the historic pace of 2005 and 1933.

Quiet, For Now

In the wake of Isaias, the Atlantic Basin has stabilized. On Thursday, the NHC issued its first tropical outlook that didn't have any areas of possible development for the first time in almost three weeks.

The Weather Company meteorological scientist Michael Ventrice said a large-scale atmospheric wave called a Kelvin wave would act to suppress tropical development across the Atlantic Basin through mid-August.

Most Active Time of Season Ahead

Despite nine named storms already, roughly 90 percent of the hurricane season still lies ahead.

If you like sports analogies, think of early August in the hurricane season as equivalent to mid-April in a Major League Baseball season or Week 2 of a National Football League season, at least if there wasn't COVID-19 to contend with.

FEMA scientist Michael Lowry pointed out the hurricane season typically ramps up significantly in late August, continuing its most active stretch into September.

CSU scientist Phil Klotzbach said 85 percent of Category 3 or stronger Atlantic hurricanes occur after Aug. 20.

In fact, the last 30 hurricanes to become so-called major – Category 3 or stronger – each did so on or after Aug. 20. Hurricane Bill in 2009 was the last major hurricane to reach that status before Aug. 20.

The storms we've seen so far have been a wake-up call. The time to prepare is now, before the peak of the season or the next storm or hurricane threatens.

The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.