Why Tropical Storm Laura Could Join List of Recent Gulf Hurricanes That Rapidly Strengthened

Laura is expected to push through the Gulf of Mexico into Wednesday, where atmospheric and oceanic conditions will be favorable for strengthening. In fact, Laura has a chance to undergo rapid intensification, which is a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less.

An intensification period like that should propel Laura to major hurricane strength - Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale - before it makes landfall along the upper Texas or southwest Louisiana coasts late Wednesday or early Thursday. However, it should be stressed that Laura could produce significant storm surge, wind and rain impacts no matter whether it becomes a major hurricane or not.

There are two main reasons for the possible quick strengthening of Laura.

First, since it's late August, the waters of the Gulf of Mexico are plenty warm enough to support a strengthening hurricane.

But it's not just water temperatures that matter when it comes to forecasting intensification. A big part of the equation is the behavior of winds thousands of feet high in the atmosphere.

Hurricanes can intensify significantly when winds in the upper atmosphere are light under an area of high pressure. That allows the hurricane to ventilate itself and grow stronger.

Exactly how strong Laura becomes is still uncertain, but those two factors do point to the possibility of significant strengthening.

If that happens, it could join a list of several other recent Gulf hurricanes that intensified up until their respective landfalls.

-Hurricane Harvey (2017): Harvey was a Category 4 hurricane when it made landfall near Rockport, Texas, on Aug. 25. Just two days before landfall it was a tropical storm.

-Hurricane Michael (2018): Michael was a tropical storm just three days prior to making landfall. Michael rapidly intensified in the Gulf of Mexico just as Harvey did. It continued to strengthen right up until landfall. Upon reanalysis, Michael was reclassified as a Category 5 hurricane when it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, on October 10.

-Hurricane Hanna (2020): The most recent of the bunch occurred about a month ago when Hurricane Hanna pushed into South Texas. Hanna's maximum sustained winds jumped from 45 mph to 85 mph in 24 hours. The intensification occurred right up until it made landfall as a strong Category 1 with 90 mph winds.

Uncertainty in the for the intensity and track forecast for Laura remains as it tracks toward the western Gulf Coast. However, these examples show why you should pay attention and be alert for forecast changes when a hurricane threatens. It's better to prepare for a possible hurricane strike early instead of running out of time.

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